Crypto-Crash: reasons for the crash of Bitcoin, Ethereum ...

Overview of Major Risks of Buying Nyancoins - Version 6

This is the sixth version of the NYAN risks document (based on v5 (v4 (v3 , v2 and original)). These are obsoleted periodically as the old ones get archived to allow for comments again via a new post, to re-examine the risks in light of changes, and for greater visibility.
The purpose of these documents is to provide a best-effort discussion of major risk factors in gambling on NYAN, modeled on the risks disclosure in a 10k (annual report) which is mandated for publicly traded companies in the United States. This document is provided with no guarantee that major risk factors have not been missed, and it is important to recognize my (coinaday) personal bias from holding about one-third of the total supply of NYAN.
Please comment on any risks which are not mentioned here or additional aspects of risks here you think should be further emphasized or any other possible disclosure you think would be helpful to a person considering gambling on NYAN.
Executive summary
Nyancoins have no exchange, no core developer at the moment, uncertain demand, have had inconsistent blocks, are very vulnerable to 51% attacks, have the potential for serious bugs, an uncertain legal situation, concentrated ownership, low liquidity, depend upon the Internet, may be addictive, and could make you wealthy, which has been alleged to lead to more problems.
Introduction: This is my best attempt to collect every major risk factor from buying Nyancoins, although I can offer no warranty of fitness for this information for any purposes. I believe in honesty and forthrightness. Having this available and obvious is a simple matter of basic decency. Much, hopefully all, of this information has been discussed previously in /nyancoins, but this document in particular is about being up-to-date and central. This page will be updated clearly as appropriate if situations change on a best-effort basis (which may mean updates do not happen for months at times, unfortunately; please ping for faster updates).
If you believe that I am missing something, please note any other major risks you see in the comments.
Exchanges:
Nyancoins are not currently traded on any exchange. It may be listed on one minor exchange but have no volume there. Obviously an unlisted cryptocurrency is in a bad situation. I hope to see us gain a listing on an exchange which supports low volume coins in 2020 but I have no current prospect of this and it should be considered a longshot at best.
Previously we traded on Trade Satoshi and prior to that on Cryptopia and prior to that on Cryptsy. All three exchanges failed us (Trade Satoshi delisted without allowing withdrawal; Cryptopia delisted and failed to provide withdrawal and then went bankrupt; Cryptsy went bankrupt). This is a further reminder that exchanges are a major risk and one should be extremely careful to not keep more coins on there than one can comfortably afford to lose.
In theory, there are decentralized exchange technologies, notably CATE; however, I think we currently lack some needed APIs for this. I'm not certain but we haven't demonstrated the capability yet. On-Reddit exchanges are also possible with tipbots, but require trust as they are not atomic. It should be possible to build an "exchangebot" similarly, although I'm not currently aware of one, but my concept would still have the bot as a trusted central party.
Atomic cross-chain transactions seem to me like a very promising core technology ultimately for building exchanges which can be more proveably secure. They could also allow exchanges to share a common listing protocol as well without having to trust the other exchanges (at least, beyond the core protocol development and maintenance; tanstaafl). This is not yet accomplished though and in the meantime we remain vulnerable to periodic exchange failures.
Core developer: Although we have good general tech support in this community and have put up supporting infrastructure, there is not anyone officially currently working on core client code. This is a significant problem for the long-term, although we are not in any immediate known need of changes.
ImASharkRawwwr has returned to the community and may do future client updates, but I'm leaving the lack of core developer risk unchanged until there is an update released. This is not intended as a slight in any way but merely being cautious in the risks document and recognizing that we aren't certain when or if there will be a next release.
Demand: NYAN was introduced in 2014 and during the second half of that year had so little demand that it almost died out. In January 2015 I got involved in the coin and for most of 2015 and 2016 I was the majority of the buying pressure. I base these statements on my recollection of the trading history so far and the fact that I have acquired more than 120 million coins, somewhere around 41% of the coins (latest hodling report, June 2017), as well as my observations that I had usually had the leading major bid, and usually the leading bid regardless of size.
In 2017, I have generally not been a major factor in the demand, as I haven’t had money to spare to gamble on NYAN. In June 2017, we have had a spike in buying from an unknown source.
It is unknown whether significant demand for NYAN will continue. Because its value is purely speculative, it is entirely possible that demand for NYAN could simply end. This is a fundamental risk in gambling on NYAN; it is entirely possible that its value will go to zero and not recover.
By the end of 2019, we lost exchange listing. I know of no current demand for NYAN. I hope to see us listed and demand exist in the future but should not be relied upon. NYAN last traded around 9 satoshi according to coinmarketcap but it may well not even trade that high even if relisted someday - there could be a flood of selling and no buyers.
Inconsistent blocks:
Although NYAN is designed to produce a block every minute, there have been times where there has been more than 24 hours between blocks. This results because of an imperfect difficulty function and low base hashing, along with price fluctuations, which can combine to have a low difficulty making the coin attractive for a flood of hashing power which can lead the difficulty function to overcompensate, leaving it stuck with a high difficulty no longer profitable to mine.
I haven’t observed this lately, that is, I don’t recall incidents of this in 2017, but I’ve been paying far less attention to it as well. It is entirely possible for this to recur, as the difficulty function is not fixed (it would require a hard fork to fix it). We seem to have more baseline hashing which helps to avoid this, but it is possible for us to lose that.
A workaround is to use large transaction fees (I've set my client to 337 NYAN) which is enough to cause pools to generally solve a block even if the chain were otherwise stuck. It may be possible to include a better difficulty function in a hard fork client, but it is unknown when if ever this would be done and it's not yet clear what design improvement if any would fix this.
51% attack: Because of the generally quite low hashing power on NYAN, it is highly vulnerable to a 51% attack. Either a leading pool or a new one could choose to do a denial-of-service attack, whether for extortion, lulz, or some other reason (like coinaday being annoying). Such an attack is capable of preventing any transaction processing for as long as it is sustained. I consider this a relatively low risk since I expect we would simply wait it out (and potentially not even notice such an attack for quite a while given the low volume of transactions currently), but it is definitely a potential vulnerability.
Bugs: It is possible that there are bugs in the underlying code. I have never read through all of the bitcoin or nyancoin code, of any version, nor even studied the original bitcoin whitepaper in depth (by the way, we oughta make up a nyancoin whitepaper or ten someday), meaning I have no professional or technical knowledge about whether or not the system is fundamentally sound. I've been going based on "it seems to be working, so it's probably fine", which is, shall we say, more of an engineering than scientific approach.
I have heard reference to a "time warp" bug vulnerability in the KGW difficulty function which Nyancoins has. I do not know details and my understanding is a fix to this would require a fork to change the difficulty function, so I do not anticipate a fix before NYAN3, the term for an eventual hard fork, but it is unknown when if ever this would be done. I consider this vulnerability to be likely to be related to the fundamental weakness to difficulty spikes after large amounts of hashing jumps on the network. Hostile (or simply passing interest with large capacity) hashing does degrade the performance of the network. As a workaround, this class of attack can be mitigated with a transaction to 'unstick' the chain after, since the difficulty function will adjust in the next block after enough wall-time has passed since the last block (so only need one high difficulty solve which can be triggered by a transaction fee).
Legal: Bitcoin faces uncertain legal situations in almost every country. Nyancoin is even more uncertain, as people tend to consider bitcoin and not address impacts on altcoins. Between the potential tax implications and banking regulations and currency laws, there are a wide variety of ways a person could make a felony-level mistake. This can be somewhat mitigated by merely buying and holding, as you won't be responsible for KYC/AML presumably (although an argument could be made in your purchase), and presumably unrealized capital gains wouldn't be taxable (but I am neither a lawyer nor accountant nor any sort of expert on the relevant accounting laws in any country).
Somehow getting legal opinions for Nyancoins in every country would be very useful in my opinion. If Bitcoin and altcoins are well-studied in a given country it should be relatively easy to adapt those opinions and research to Nyancoins, but it would still require some pro bono work in any case. So...hopefully we'll get some lawyer Nekonauts someday who are willing to semi-officially give us an opinion. In the meantime...hope that common sense can save you. If you sell Nyancoins directly, you're going to need to comply with the KYC/AML types of laws of your country. If you're going to do banking operations...may the central bank have mercy on your soul.
I think the best advantage we have is the same bitcoin had for its first years: we're too small for anyone to care. But since we plan to grow significantly, we need to be aware of our legal issues upon scale. Which is to say, whether or not you're allowed to sell 10,000 NYAN to your friend probably has a lot to do with whether your friend legally acquired whatever is being offered in exchange, and whether the value of what you get in return is above a certain level or not. I'm not going to try guessing that level precisely because I know I'll be wrong. $1 is probably fine. $10,000 is probably illegal without some significant licensing. I would suggest either not touching fiat or else deliberately capping it without verification after getting an independent local expert legal opinion.
concentration: The fact that I hold about 41%(? not sure the exact percentage as of Dec 2017 ; need to do updated survey to check; 41% sounds slightly high to me but I'll see...I'll try to update by the end of the year or shortly after) of the currently outstanding NYAN could be a major risk factor, particularly if I do not act in the best long-term interests of the strength of Nyancoins. For instance, I could pull my bids, sell only a small part of my holdings, crash the market, and potentially buy a lot of volume for a lower price. While I cannot foresee any circumstance under which I would do this, it is certainly conceivable that I could be financially, legally, or morally obligated to do so if I were to become insolvent.
Liquidity: There is very little trading activity in NYAN. Therefore, large purchases will drive the price up and large sales will drive the price down. This means that entering and exiting a position is likely to result in "slippage", so even if the price has increased slightly overall since the time before one entered a position to the time before one exits it, it is quite possible that the overall trade will be neutral or negative as a result of the pressure on the market. For an extreme example, my own position would be essentially impossible to exit from the market without crashing the price, and even so it would likely be difficult to find buyers even at a satoshi, based on that I currently am the majority of the bids on the market. This is closely tied to the concentration risk but if I were to exit NYAN for any reason or simply fail to continue to renew bids the liquidity would dry up even further.
At the end of 2019, having no exchange, there is functionally zero liquidity. In theory peer to peer trading could still be done but I’m unaware of any.
Internet outage: if the Internet goes down, we hit a very nasty scenario. We can't process transactions, and all the miners go into a race to make 'useless' blocks on their own. If the Internet were never to come back up, Nyancoins would be dead. If there is a daylong internet outage, the longest blockchain discovered after, presumably representing the most hashing power dedicated to empty blocks during that outage, will win. So I suppose the block rewards in that case are for having the faith in Nyancoins to keep hashing and storing the blockchain during the day without the Internet.
addictive: This was a curiosity to me when I started. Now it's an obsession for me. I'm constantly thinking about how I can help to smooth the path for Nyancoins to grow stronger and better and more valuable. You may find that once you start to realize the impact you can have upon Nyancoins, and that Nyancoins can have upon you, that you start to become addicted as well. It is possible to substitute another addiction in its place, such as dogecoins or pcp, but it is not recommended.
Nyancoin addictions are considered 'mostly harmless'. The exception is if you go 'full coinaday' and start to accumulate more than 10% of your assets in Nyancoins. In this, this is essentially a variety of gambling addiction. I would argue that it beats roulette because you can tilt the odds in your favor, but then, I would argue that, wouldn't I?
mo' nyan mo' problems: Some people have claimed that more money leads to more problems. Since nyan is money, it follows as a consequence of the conjecture. Should this be the case, your increasing nyan could potentially lead to such problems in the future as: enhanced attention from revenue collection services of all kinds (governmental and private), swarms of fake friends and gold-diggers, excessive risk-taking as a result of feelings of invincibility, an increase in certain varieties of targeted marketing, possible disqualification for asset-based welfare for you (or even your children, for instance college financial assistance), an inability to remember how many houses you own, or other serious problems.
Conclusion
The lack of any exchange trading Nyancoins is a major risk factor in its future survival. If it is listed, the lack of development is likely the next most serious. The coin currently survives but whether it will continue to do so in the future is far from certain. If those of us who have found or come back to NYAN choose to keep it alive, I believe it still has a chance at surviving into a stronger future.
This self-certified infallible message has been brought to you as a Public Service Announcement of the NYAN Public Relations Council, a transparent front organization of notoriously lovable philanthropist and major NYAN hodler coinaday.
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Cryptocurrencies and the circle of competence

A quick note to investors that believe the intrinsic value of bitcoin is 0 because they can't do a DCF on it: this isn't the place to argue with me about it. I suggest you read a bit more about what it actually is (hint: not a currency). I've defended its value in plenty of other posts on this sub. It's a $40+ billion market, so at least a few people agree with me. I welcome you to short the crypto of your choice if you think it's worth nothing. This is a post for folks that believe that cryptocurrencies have at least some discernible value and are considering investing in them.
If we have a strength, it is in recognizing when we are operating well within our circle of competence and when we are approaching the perimeter. – Warren Buffett
Given the tripling of the cryptocurrency market cap in the last few months and the 3- to 10-fold increases in virtually every major altcoin, cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and of course Bitcoin have been getting a stunning amount of attention in the press and on this subreddit recently.
If you follow the cryptocurrency world closely, you know that there have been a huge amount of dubious ICOs (initial coin offerings) on the market recently. It's an explosive time in crypto.
It's also a frustrating time for many long term bitcoiners and crypto fans, because we're faced with a barrage of questions from outsiders who see the returns and want to buy in to the "next big thing" and make a quick buck. This is a warning to those people.
Everyone is a genius is a rising market. It's hard to go wrong these days in crypto. Even coins of dubious merit like Ripple, Dogecoin, Stellar, NEM were pumped 5 times without any fundamental change. Speculators/investors have thrown money at crypto indiscriminately and efficient markets have 100% broken down. The altcoin pump right now is roughly comparable to the Dot Com crisis of the early 2000s.
  1. New tech promises to change the world
  2. Investors jump in on hype and promises
  3. A surge of IPOs (ICOs) occurs to capitalize on this
  4. "Greater fool" traders pile in, thinking they can make money even if the underlying is unsound
  5. Analysts claim "this time is different" while seasoned old hands refuse to participate
  6. Tech is proven not to be as developed as everyone thinks, market tanks
  7. Select few decent companies survive, all the trash is destroyed
  8. Tech eventually fulfills expectations, 10 years later, but none of the investors from the early days make money on it
However, canny (and skeptical) investors can still make money on crypto, as cryptocurrencies are inevitable, and will continue to expand and proliferate, even when the altcoin crash comes.
Something to realize first of all is that the crypto market is heterogeneous. It has straightforward cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, litecoin, dash, monero), smart-contract cryptos (ethereum, ethereum classic) and a whole bunch of crypto tokens that follow dedicated platforms (golem, augur, steem). Not mentioned are ripple and stellar because they aren't really cryptocurrencies at all.
The investing theses for all of these categories is radically different. The measure of success for a currency or store of value is adoption, merchant use, low volatility, a large network, and real world acceptance as something worth owning. Bitcoin has this right now, which is why it's more than 50% of the ecosystem, and none of its competitors are even close. Monero, Zcash, and Dash are a special case in that they try and make transactions anonymous and privacy, allowing for use cases on the darknet markets, for instance.
The tech underlying bitcoin is essentially sound, although it is having a scalability crisis, which you should read about. It can't right now serve as a currency which will buy you a cup of coffee - the transaction fees are too high. However if you want to send $200,000 from Mexico to Indonesia or China to the Philippines, you can do it within 20 minutes, and with fees of a few dollars. And if you want to store your wealth in a vault that is totally secure, and cannot be debased by a central bank, bitcoin is a good bet. This is highly relevant to folks in India that just had cash abolished, to Venezuelans, to Argentines, to Cypriots, to Nigerians, anywhere local currencies are weak and volatile. The potential value of a competing cryptocurrency lies in whether it can improve materially on bitcoin, whether it means incorporating off-chain scaling (segwit with litecoin), making it more private and fungible (monero), automating governance (decred), and so on.
Then there are cryptoassets that incorporate smart contracts. These – ethereum and its derivatives – exploded when the SEC denied the Bitcoin ETF back in march and bitcoiners got worried and started diversifying. This is the market segment that is highly risky, even by crypto standards, in my opinion. Ethereum is a protocol that allows contracts to self-enforce. Programming power to run the contracts is paid for with ethereum. Two parties agree to a contract, and it then self-executes. It's secured by a decentralized computing network of ethereum miners, so the contracts cannot be shut down by a government or corporation. It's pretty clever. Last year, a $150+ million contract was drawn up with ethereum, which would act like a venture capital fund, picking good investments just based on the votes of the token holders. This was called a Decentralized Autonomous Organization, and it was hacked before it could do anything. Well, it was exploited based on the code and so the exploit was totally "fair" given that the contract was meant to be inevitable, once agreed to. However, the creators of Ethereum didn't like the idea of losing $50 million, so they decided to collectively agree to amend the rules of the protocol itself (violating "Code is Law"), and jump onto a new one, which they would also call Ethereum, although it was really Ethereum 2.0. Some people got upset by this, because they thought that immutability and not arbitrarily rolling back the code was more important than some investors losing money because of poorly written code. They created Ethereum Classic, which is the original Ethereum chain. This wasn't what the Ethereum 2.0 folks thought would happen, but it did happen, so there are two competing Ethereum chains now.
Eventually, lots of decentralized apps were funded, via tokensales. A development team would say: "we're going to use ethereum to create a decentralized cloud computing/AI/prediction/gambling/timestamping/social media network." And then investors would buy the tokens, expecting that eventually the dev team would deliver, and the tokens would be in demand, since they would be required to use the network. It's a bit like buying in-game-currency when the game is announced, anticipating that the game would be wildly popular and you'd be able to sell it on later at a profit or acquire it cheaply to buy in-game items later on. However, many of us think that the promises are a bit extravagant, and that investors in these ICOs are probably going to lose money. The incentives aren't well aligned. Founders can just not deliver and run off with the money, and there's no regulatory body to enforce that. And for Ethereum more broadly, many people are worried that the turing-completeness of the language will mean it will face serious threats and unforeseeable hacks, like with the DAO. Finally, Ethereum has increased from around $20 to $90 in a matter of months, which raises the question of whether a) the market realized its true value or b) it was pumped on speculation. There's a huge set of unknowns with a smart contract currency, and virtually none of the promised dapps are up and running right now, and the ones that are haven't really attracted large userbases or delivered. This is because the tech is in its infancy, and the developers are still learning how to use it properly. So we won't know if these sorts of decentralized networks are even possible to create on the timelines that investors are expecting. Therefore, ethereum investors buying it on the promise of the realization of this tech in the near future are almost guaranteed to be disappointed. Additionally, ethereum is making the switch to the largely untested Proof of Stake algorithm, which will change incentives that secure the network. This brings me to my key point:
Stay within your circle of competence. You can grow your circle – slowly. Cryptoassets are almost impossibly complex to grasp with just a cursory look. Investing in them requires weeks of reading and a very skeptical view.
The above was an introduction to cryptocurrencies, the different ones on offer, and why investing in ethereum is not the slam dunk everyone thinks it is. This portion of the post will tell you about the kind of due diligence you need to do if you want to invest, rather than speculate, in crypto.
The first thing to mention is that passive investing in crypto has historically been a terrible strategy. Just buying bitcoin almost always outperformed. This was due to the poor set of altcoins, and the size of bitcoin's almost insurmountable network effect. This sort of changed in March and April when bitcoin's dominance went from 80% to ~50%, and it remains to be seen if this will persist or not. But the point is, buying the index is usually an awful strategy in crypto, particularly because there are so many truly awful projects out there.
So what does it take to invest responsibly in cryptocurrencies? It requires at least a basic understanding of three disciplines: public-private key cryptography; programming, and how open-source projects function; and economics, particularly game theory and the quantity theory of money. This is why is is so difficult to apprehend easily: because very few people actually boast a sincere understanding of these three topics. I certainly don't.
You need to be able to determine whether the tech is actually going anywhere, and whether the task the developers have set themselves is possible or realistic. You need to know how open source networks are governed, and which models strike the best balance between efficiency of decision-making and fair consensus. You need to be able to measure the inflation schedule of the cryptocurrency, and see whether your coins are going to inflated away. You need to be able to make plausible guesses about the potential market for the crypto and estimate future values. Note that the payoff structure is not equity-like. It's more like early stage venture capital, or buying loss-making biotech companies. Here's my checklist of questions to answer, ordered by importance:
  • Does the project offer a significant improvement over its nearest competitor, or a reasonable chance of success in its stated aim? Is there a demand for this project? Does it have a concise and reasonable goal? (Narrower goal: higher likelihood of success).
  • Is the development team competent? Are they committed to the coin? What's their track record? Is is an active dev team? Do they have a roadmap for the future? Are they transparent about goals?
  • How is the development team funded? Is the currency corporate-backed? Is the funding transparent? Was the coin significantly premined? (Usually bad) Are developers paid via iterative community project crowdfunding? (Usually good).
  • What is the governance structure of the currency? Who holds ultimate control over decisionmaking? How are decisions made? Are they transparent? Are mining/developer incentives aligned?
  • Does the asset have acceptance and use today? Does it have a functioning use case? If it doesn't, does it have a decent chance of being accepted?
  • Has the asset's "market cap" tripled or quintupled in the last few months? Was this based on any fundamental changes (new software releases, etc) or just speculation?
  • What are the transaction volumes like? (Hint: divide market cap by monthly averaged daily on-chain tx volume to find a consistent ratio) What's the ratio of on-chain transaction versus exchange speculation? Has price gone up independent of transaction volumes?
  • How long has the asset been around? Think of the Lindy effect. Older is usually better.
  • What's the community like? Is there censorship? Does it have an active subreddit? Do the developers answer questions? Are they accessible? How big is the github community? (Hint: you can divide market cap by github commits to find a comparable ratio).
  • Are you psychologically able to hold this coin in a 90% downturn? Is this a high conviction thesis or are you betting on being able to sell it to a greater fool?
How long did it take you to learn about investing in equities? Reading balance sheets, running DCF and DRI models, figuring out how to value a stock based on comparables? Years? How many mistakes did you make before you figured out how to be responsible?
Cryptos are an asset class that is both radically different from anything that has existed before. They are also incredibly heterogeneous, as I argued above. It also leads to cultism – so bitcoiners generally take a dim view of ethereum, and vice versa. Monero fans generally don't like dash, and so on. You have to keep your mind open to understand new opportunities as they arise, and to stop yourself becoming too mentally invested in your project of choice. The vast majority of projects will fail within 5 years, so becoming overly certain of the success of one will probably devastate you. If you can stay balanced, stay honest about your crypto's chances of success and adoption, not get tunnel vision, and not take overly risky positions, you have a good chance of not losing everything. Remember the payoff structure. Heavily rightward skewed. A ton of cryptos earn no return and a select few earn an absurd (1,000-10,000x) return.
None of this is necessary if you just want to invest randomly in one of the top ten cryptos. That's the strategy of 95% of investors today. Pick a coin and go. If it's not bitcoin, I can pretty much guarantee you'll lose money. The newer, the worse.
I've not made an effort to convince you that cryptos have intrinsic value. If you've made it this far, you probably think they're worth something at least. However, they're probably not worth as much as the market is pricing them at right now. Especially not those in the ethereum family. I'm not going to tell you what to invest in, because that would defeat the purpose of this post. I'm telling you to do your due diligence before blindly buying a crypto. And that due diligence on ethereum is as complex and difficult as Tesla or Amazon DD. And that your skills in equity valuation are pretty much useless in this asset class. My circle of competence doesn't extend to options or lean pork futures, so I don't touch those. I suggest that until you really feel comfortable in crypto, you don't buy randomly.
Summative thoughts:
  1. Investing in crypto is hard
  2. 90% of people that invest at market peaks will lose money
  3. You have to extremely skeptical and invest in high-conviction positions
  4. Cryptos are exhibiting bubbly behavior right now, it's a pretty bad time to pick one out
  5. Cryptos are nothing like equities but they do have real value
  6. Cryptos are the future, but almost none of these coins will survive 10 years
  7. The older the better
  8. Governance is key
  9. These are speculative positions, only invest what you can tolerate losing
  10. You can make money investing in cryptos
  11. Passively investing in cryptos doesn't work
  12. It's a winner takes most market, there won't be 1 crypto that wins. There will be different cryptos for different use cases.
edit: deleted chart with probabilities of success because of subjectivity and oversimplification.
edit2: I've been overwhelmed with PMs so bear with me. also, please forgive any spelling errors on this post. I wrote it in one frenzied sitting.
edit3: I knew I would get a fair amount of resistance from ethereum investors (even though I attempted to keep my post as balanced as possible) but I was unprepared from the breathtaking volume of spam and diversity of attacks. One particular user has made 30 comments in this thread. I don't have a stake in ETC, period. The post is 3000 words long and most of it is about how to properly do your due diligence in a crypto. if ethereum fares poorly by standard due diligence metrics, then perhaps your issue is deeper than one post on /investing.
final edit: there have been some broken-hearted ethereum fans very busy organizing brigades against this post, and attacking me personally, and so on. It's all very incovenient. I can tell that I struck a nerve. This post isn't really about ethereum - it's about how to do research in crypto, and why you can't expect to profit handsomely without that due diligence. I mentioned ethereum because there are 3 or 4 breathless posts on here a day about its stunning gains and whether it's worth investing in. My answer: read about it first, from a diverse set of sources. A final note: I do not own any ethereum classic, I have never owned ethereum classic. I brought it up because it is part of the ethereum story, and an example of what happens when you have a contested hard fork. I do hope that ethereum succeeds, I am just cautioning against over exuberance.
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Random 1,000 DOGE GIVEAWAY + Your Mission, Should You Choose To Accept It

THE GIVEAWAY HAS ENDED:

TO EVERYONE WHO ENTERED, THANK YOU.
Congratulations PlochFX, who won, with a guess of 1,897,635. The generated number was 1,745,701, which means PlochFX was off by 151,934. The next closest guess was darkblade48, who was off by 463,683.
This is a permalink to the comment verifying the tip.
Proof of the generated number.
Thank you all for entering - this got way more attention than I thought it would. I love you all, and thank you for the compliments on my video :).
 
How it will work: I will use Random.org to generate a truly random number between 8 and 88888888. Whoever guesses closest to the generated number will receive 1,000 DOGE through sodogetip at 8:08 PM PST, Saturday, January 27th, which is also when the giveaway will end. Each user is allowed one entry. Directions: Choose a number between 8 and 88888888, and write it in the comments below. While you’re at it, tell me what you think of my Year of the Doge video!
Good luck!
 

Stuff you might want to read:

Intro: I’m an old shibe who’s been around since the early days (on other accounts) and have the memorabilia to prove it (thanks to Shibe Mint). The Year of the Doge contest reminds me of the Hype Video competition, but with more participants, and the submitted videos have far surpassed my expectations. Everyone did an amazing job, and I’m so proud of all of you!
 
The Mission: This is a prime opportunity to bring more attention to Dogecoin, and everyone has to play their part. Every video submitted has a unique selling point - the graphics, voiceover, emotions, silliness, display of charity, informational value, or good-ol-fashioned doge spirit, and it’s up to all of us to market the SH**A out of that. Email your local newspapers, write about why doge is the best coin, and tweet your video to every celebrity (don’t forget Tommy Wiseau is a Bitcoiner!). Explain doge’s best selling points, from your point of view, and why everyone should hodl some. After you’ve done that, share it on social media, tell your friends, or give out paper wallets, but please don’t make promises about doge reaching a certain value in USD or making anyone rich; that’s not what doge is about!
 
Unnecessary Commentary: I’m afraid this sub is losing touch with what makes dogecoin so great - being the antidote to the rest of crypto. Instead of a caustic slew of price discussions and FUD about the market crashing, we’re the meme loving shibes who sponsor racecars and Jamaican bobsled teams. As our subshibers grow and doge moons, we should focus on sponsoring more projects and bringing more happiness to the world. Yes, doge has fast and cheap transactions, but other cryptos do too, and some have more “professional” viability due to their marketing (Dash, Raiblocks, etc.). The real value of doge lies in our community - and more importantly, our community projects, which we need more of…
…which brings me to this video (yes, ik, a very bad self-plug, pls forgive) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuTzXSH9aRg. This piece of work was shot on a fake GoPro that cost me $20, and edited with openshot on debian, so I didn’t think I’d end up with much. Fortunately, what I managed to squeeze out was better than expected, and I hope that after watching it, you’re inspired to go help the homeless yourself. The best tip I have is to see them as real people, with lives just as complex and interesting as yours. If you respect them, they’ll respect you, and most are happy to have someone to talk to. If you love your room as much as Brian Wilson, and don’t like to leave it, you could also help me pay back the socks, as $52 isn’t a drop in the bucket for a poor college shibe like me (address below). And, if you’d rather not send your magic internet money to some internet stranger, you could donate to some of the charities I’ve picked out below.
 

Thank you for reading, may the moon be with you, and good luck if you submitted a video.

 
Great Charities:
There are many others. Please let me know if I should add any.
 
My DOGE Addresses:
Help me to pay back the socks: DDvgW1NAJ5FGzE1ncd4MvCbwHaVdMEnhwZ address on chain.so
Stories of the Homeless Fund (example here): DPPNGWJaaiB6PcJiYyKi2KutGpRoLBnF3s address on chain.so
If you liked my Year of the Doge video: D9XUYjCiHBUV6khUSQG3C5BdNHZCC98XE5 address on chain.so
P.S. Thank you to ZCham and have-a-good-one for their tips on my old post.
 
Thank you all for being a great community. Love you guys ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ (>#_#)>.
submitted by Sebmellen to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Overview of Major Risks of Buying Nyancoins - Version 5

This is the fifth version of the NYAN risks document (based on v4 (v3 , v2 and original). These are obsoleted periodically as the old ones get archived to allow for comments again via a new post, to re-examine the risks in light of changes, and for greater visibility.
The purpose of these documents is to provide a best-effort discussion of major risk factors in gambling on NYAN, modeled on the risks disclosure in a 10k (annual report) which is mandated for publicly traded companies in the United States. This document is provided with no guarantee that major risk factors have not been missed, and it is important to recognize my (coinaday) personal bias from holding about one-third of the total supply of NYAN.
Please comment on any risks which are not mentioned here or additional aspects of risks here you think should be further emphasized or any other possible disclosure you think would be helpful to a person considering gambling on NYAN.
Executive summary
Nyancoins have no core developer at the moment, uncertain demand, are traded actively on only one exchange, have had inconsistent blocks, are very vulnerable to 51% attacks, have the potential for serious bugs, an uncertain legal situation, concentrated ownership, low liquidity, depend upon the Internet, may be addictive, and could make you wealthy, which has been alleged to lead to more problems.
Introduction: This is my best attempt to collect every major risk factor from buying Nyancoins, although I can offer no warranty of fitness for this information for any purposes. I believe in honesty and forthrightness. Having this available and obvious is a simple matter of basic decency. Much, hopefully all, of this information has been discussed previously in /nyancoins, but this document in particular is about being up-to-date and central. This page will be updated clearly as appropriate if situations change on a best-effort basis (which may mean updates do not happen for months at times, unfortunately; please ping for faster updates).
If you believe that I am missing something, please note any other major risks you see in the comments.
Core developer: Although we have good general tech support in this community and have put up supporting infrastructure, there is not anyone officially currently working on core client code. This is a significant problem for the long-term, although we are not in any immediate known need of changes.
ImASharkRawwwr has returned to the community and may do future client updates, but I'm leaving the lack of core developer risk unchanged until there is an update released. This is not intended as a slight in any way but merely being cautious in the risks document and recognizing that we aren't certain when or if there will be a next release.
Demand: NYAN was introduced in 2014 and during the second half of that year had so little demand that it almost died out. In January 2015 I got involved in the coin and for most of 2015 and 2016 I was the majority of the buying pressure. I base these statements on my recollection of the trading history so far and the fact that I have acquired more than 120 million coins, somewhere around 41% of the coins (latest hodling report, June 2017), as well as my observations that I had usually had the leading major bid, and usually the leading bid regardless of size.
In 2017, I have generally not been a major factor in the demand, as I haven’t had money to spare to gamble on NYAN. In June 2017, we have had a spike in buying from an unknown source.
It is unknown whether significant demand for NYAN will continue. Because its value is purely speculative, it is entirely possible that demand for NYAN could simply end. This is a fundamental risk in gambling on NYAN; it is entirely possible that its value will go to zero and not recover.
Exchanges:
Trade Satoshi is currently the only exchange for Nyancoins with significant volume. If Trade Satoshi were to fail somehow, it is likely that this would have significant consequences for Nyancoins.
Previously we traded on Cryptopia and prior to that on Cryptsy. Both exchanges failed. This is a further reminder that exchanges are a major risk and one should be extremely careful to not keep more coins on there than one can comfortably afford to lose.
In theory, there are decentralized exchange technologies, notably CATE; however, I think we currently lack some needed APIs for this. I'm not certain but we haven't demonstrated the capability yet. On-Reddit exchanges are also possible with tipbots, but require trust as they are not atomic. It should be possible to build an "exchangebot" similarly, although I'm not currently aware of one, but my concept would still have the bot as a trusted central party.
Atomic cross-chain transactions seem to me like a very promising core technology ultimately for building exchanges which can be more proveably secure. They could also allow exchanges to share a common listing protocol as well without having to trust the other exchanges (at least, beyond the core protocol development and maintenance; tanstaafl). This is not yet accomplished though and in the meantime we remain vulnerable to periodic exchange failures.
Inconsistent blocks:
Although NYAN is designed to produce a block every minute, there have been times where there has been more than 24 hours between blocks. This results because of an imperfect difficulty function and low base hashing, along with price fluctuations, which can combine to have a low difficulty making the coin attractive for a flood of hashing power which can lead the difficulty function to overcompensate, leaving it stuck with a high difficulty no longer profitable to mine.
I haven’t observed this lately, that is, I don’t recall incidents of this in 2017, but I’ve been paying far less attention to it as well. It is entirely possible for this to recur, as the difficulty function is not fixed (it would require a hard fork to fix it). We seem to have more baseline hashing which helps to avoid this, but it is possible for us to lose that.
A workaround is to use large transaction fees (I've set my client to 337 NYAN) which is enough to cause pools to generally solve a block even if the chain were otherwise stuck. It may be possible to include a better difficulty function in a hard fork client, but it is unknown when if ever this would be done and it's not yet clear what design improvement if any would fix this.
51% attack: Because of the generally quite low hashing power on NYAN, it is highly vulnerable to a 51% attack. Either a leading pool or a new one could choose to do a denial-of-service attack, whether for extortion, lulz, or some other reason (like coinaday being annoying). Such an attack is capable of preventing any transaction processing for as long as it is sustained. I consider this a relatively low risk since I expect we would simply wait it out (and potentially not even notice such an attack for quite a while given the low volume of transactions currently), but it is definitely a potential vulnerability.
Bugs: It is possible that there are bugs in the underlying code. I have never read through all of the bitcoin or nyancoin code, of any version, nor even studied the original bitcoin whitepaper in depth (by the way, we oughta make up a nyancoin whitepaper or ten someday), meaning I have no professional or technical knowledge about whether or not the system is fundamentally sound. I've been going based on "it seems to be working, so it's probably fine", which is, shall we say, more of an engineering than scientific approach.
I have heard reference to a "time warp" bug vulnerability in the KGW difficulty function which Nyancoins has. I do not know details and my understanding is a fix to this would require a fork to change the difficulty function, so I do not anticipate a fix before NYAN3, the term for an eventual hard fork, but it is unknown when if ever this would be done. I consider this vulnerability to be likely to be related to the fundamental weakness to difficulty spikes after large amounts of hashing jumps on the network. Hostile (or simply passing interest with large capacity) hashing does degrade the performance of the network. As a workaround, this class of attack can be mitigated with a transaction to 'unstick' the chain after, since the difficulty function will adjust in the next block after enough wall-time has passed since the last block (so only need one high difficulty solve which can be triggered by a transaction fee).
Legal: Bitcoin faces uncertain legal situations in almost every country. Nyancoin is even more uncertain, as people tend to consider bitcoin and not address impacts on altcoins. Between the potential tax implications and banking regulations and currency laws, there are a wide variety of ways a person could make a felony-level mistake. This can be somewhat mitigated by merely buying and holding, as you won't be responsible for KYC/AML presumably (although an argument could be made in your purchase), and presumably unrealized capital gains wouldn't be taxable (but I am neither a lawyer nor accountant nor any sort of expert on the relevant accounting laws in any country).
Somehow getting legal opinions for Nyancoins in every country would be very useful in my opinion. If Bitcoin and altcoins are well-studied in a given country it should be relatively easy to adapt those opinions and research to Nyancoins, but it would still require some pro bono work in any case. So...hopefully we'll get some lawyer Nekonauts someday who are willing to semi-officially give us an opinion. In the meantime...hope that common sense can save you. If you sell Nyancoins directly, you're going to need to comply with the KYC/AML types of laws of your country. If you're going to do banking operations...may the central bank have mercy on your soul.
I think the best advantage we have is the same bitcoin had for its first years: we're too small for anyone to care. But since we plan to grow significantly, we need to be aware of our legal issues upon scale. Which is to say, whether or not you're allowed to sell 10,000 NYAN to your friend probably has a lot to do with whether your friend legally acquired whatever is being offered in exchange, and whether the value of what you get in return is above a certain level or not. I'm not going to try guessing that level precisely because I know I'll be wrong. $1 is probably fine. $10,000 is probably illegal without some significant licensing. I would suggest either not touching fiat or else deliberately capping it without verification after getting an independent local expert legal opinion.
concentration: The fact that I hold about 41%(? not sure the exact percentage as of Dec 2017 ; need to do updated survey to check; 41% sounds slightly high to me but I'll see...I'll try to update by the end of the year or shortly after) of the currently outstanding NYAN could be a major risk factor, particularly if I do not act in the best long-term interests of the strength of Nyancoins. For instance, I could pull my bids, sell only a small part of my holdings, crash the market, and potentially buy a lot of volume for a lower price. While I cannot foresee any circumstance under which I would do this, it is certainly conceivable that I could be financially, legally, or morally obligated to do so if I were to become insolvent.
Liquidity: There is very little trading activity in NYAN. Therefore, large purchases will drive the price up and large sales will drive the price down. This means that entering and exiting a position is likely to result in "slippage", so even if the price has increased slightly overall since the time before one entered a position to the time before one exits it, it is quite possible that the overall trade will be neutral or negative as a result of the pressure on the market. For an extreme example, my own position would be essentially impossible to exit from the market without crashing the price, and even so it would likely be difficult to find buyers even at a satoshi, based on that I currently am the majority of the bids on the market. This is closely tied to the concentration risk but if I were to exit NYAN for any reason or simply fail to continue to renew bids the liquidity would dry up even further.
Internet outage: if the Internet goes down, we hit a very nasty scenario. We can't process transactions, and all the miners go into a race to make 'useless' blocks on their own. If the Internet were never to come back up, Nyancoins would be dead. If there is a daylong internet outage, the longest blockchain discovered after, presumably representing the most hashing power dedicated to empty blocks during that outage, will win. So I suppose the block rewards in that case are for having the faith in Nyancoins to keep hashing and storing the blockchain during the day without the Internet.
addictive: This was a curiosity to me when I started. Now it's an obsession for me. I'm constantly thinking about how I can help to smooth the path for Nyancoins to grow stronger and better and more valuable. You may find that once you start to realize the impact you can have upon Nyancoins, and that Nyancoins can have upon you, that you start to become addicted as well. It is possible to substitute another addiction in its place, such as dogecoins or pcp, but it is not recommended.
Nyancoin addictions are considered 'mostly harmless'. The exception is if you go 'full coinaday' and start to accumulate more than 10% of your assets in Nyancoins. In this, this is essentially a variety of gambling addiction. I would argue that it beats roulette because you can tilt the odds in your favor, but then, I would argue that, wouldn't I?
mo' nyan mo' problems: Some people have claimed that more money leads to more problems. Since nyan is money, it follows as a consequence of the conjecture. Should this be the case, your increasing nyan could potentially lead to such problems in the future as: enhanced attention from revenue collection services of all kinds (governmental and private), swarms of fake friends and gold-diggers, excessive risk-taking as a result of feelings of invincibility, an increase in certain varieties of targeted marketing, possible disqualification for asset-based welfare for you (or even your children, for instance college financial assistance), an inability to remember how many houses you own, or other serious problems.
Conclusion
There are a variety of different risks in buying Nyancoins. I believe the most serious one is the developer issue. If those of us who have found or come back to NYAN abandon it, it could die. Otherwise, I consider the risks generally manageable, but exchange failure or a currently unknown bug could do serious damage to the ecosystem as well.
This self-certified infallible message has been brought to you as a Public Service Announcement of the NYAN Public Relations Council, a transparent front organization of notoriously lovable philanthropist and major NYAN hodler coinaday.
submitted by coinaday to nyancoins [link] [comments]

A cathartic rant to ease my bleeding Blockfolio (AKA why I remain optimistic)

My own hope, and it might just be my way of getting through this purgative crash in the market, is that this is the cleansing that we needed.
 
I'm positive we'll emerge from it (when, I can't say) into a crypto market that's free of the vacuous shitcoins scattered through the top 100... If you were to have invested last September, or before, you could pretty much have picked anything and have been guaranteed a very handsome return. This scattergun approach has, in my opinion, led to an inflated worth for a huge amount of projects with no, or very little, discernible use case (think Dogecoin, or the innumerable scam ICO's).
 
This style of blindfold-investment is a hallmark of an immature market (or more specifically, an immature investor base). In order for the market to mature, the investors need to do the same. This crash has absolutely hammered many, and I'm willing to guess that many in here who got in from October onwards, and didn't cash out at fantastic gains (January), will be significantly down on their initial investment.
 
However, what this crash does, in my opinion, is force a maturation of the investor base. Whilst I have no solid stats to back this up, in my personal experience it appears that the average crypto investor is a 25-35 year old male, with marginally below-average social skills and little-to-no prior investment experience. They’re also, in many cases, completely fu*king wrecked. They will either hold their reduced positions, hoping against hope that the good times return; or they’ll sell up and swear off investment forevermore…. If they stick around, and they’re invested in a project with inherent value, then there’s a very good chance (IMO) that they’ll enjoy a market reversal. However, if they’re sat in dodgecoin or the likes, then they can forget about green candles. This crash has been, in effect, a reset button across the boards, no token excluded, back to SeptembeOctober price levels. It’s an opportunity for people to reassess the way in which they invest and, crucially, to take a more reasoned and considered approach to the projects they invest in.
 
I anticipate that with this ‘second chance’ – if people are willing and/or liquid enough to take it – that they’ll be forced to mature and that the Average Joe will no longer pump his hard-earned into anything with a semi-coherent whitepaper. This’ll result in the death of the innumerable projects that have no obvious use case, have made no discernible progress, or were ill-conceived in the first case.
 
However – and this is what keeps me optimistic in the face of such an horrific crash in the value of my portfolio - projects of inherent value will be even more valuable than before. The total crypto market cap will be spread between fewer ‘quality’ projects and the value of these tokens will bounce back.
 
The above doesn’t even get into the potential Bitcoin ETF or, even more importantly in my eyes, the announcement of Bakkt ( https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180803005236/en/Intercontinental-Exchange-Announces-Bakkt-Global-Platform-Ecosystem ), a consortium including ICE (the owners of the NY Stock Exchange), Microsoft and Starbucks which has been formed to make Bitcoin “a trusted global currency with broad usage."… Bakkt will facilitate, in essence, a regulated crypto exchange for use by anyone, including major institutions.
 
Beyond the ETF/Bakkt stuff, there’s the ongoing formation of regulatory framework – all of which points to Security Tokens being the next ‘big thing’. Look into Security Tokens yourself – they’re backed by tangible assets and so stand, for many, a class above standard utility tokens.
 
Major institutional money IS coming, I don't think there's any doubt about that.
 
All of the above said – and I appreciate that it’s quite a screed – I remain positive long-term for intelligent investors. It’s been said many times over, but always do your research, thoroughly, before departing with any cash. With what I believe to be a cleansing of the market, the forced maturation of the investor base, and the hugely positive background moves being made by Serious Money; I firmly believe that the people who claim that crypto is dead are not only wrong, but they aren’t paying attention to anything beyond the wildly fluctuating prices.
 
Ok, that’s the optimist’s perspective; roll-up for the doomsdayers 😉
 
submitted by fent11 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

[PSA] Dogecoin Wallet version 1.4 released. You must update.

WARNING: DO NOT send your wallet.dat file or dogecoin folder to anyone. There have been reports of people offering to help others by asking them to send their files to them so they can help. DO NOT do this. Scam attempt picture
Always encrypt your wallet! I can't express this enough. You should use a strong password longer than 15 characters. This password should contain numbers, symbols, and some capitalization! There is no need to have your wallet open 24 hours a day. Open it only when you need it. See - 'Getting Started' on the side bar.
This entire post has been written to be as close to ELI5 (Explain it like I'm 5) as possible - By request! If anyone wants to add/fix/correct anything in this message, please send a message to the mods <<-- Click blue text.
All blue text in this post can be clicked on. The blue text is a link to a picture, site or download file.
A very important message/reminder below.
25 Jan 1.5 pre-releases have started.
http://www.reddit.com/dogecoin/comments/1uhpwf/dogecoin_for_mac_14_topic_thread/
OLD VERSIONS The 1.4 update for the dogecoin wallet has been released. This update addresses the block chain error that occurred. This update is mandatory meaning you have to do this update. Also further down the page you can read up about the block chain. You MUST make sure you're on the correct block chain and the old block chain has been removed.
For a Windows computer the version must be 1.4. - 1.4.1 just released! See below
For a Apple Mac Computer the version must be 1.4
Download links:
[Windows Download Link](https://github.com/dogecoin/dogecoin/releases/download/1.4/dogecoin-qt-v14-Win.zip) <<--Click to start download
Windows Download Link 1.4.1 UPDATED 19JAN
Mac Download Link <<--Click to start download
Mac users can join this thread if there are any problems
Android (phone): Please see This post
To update, simply download the new version from the download link above. Open the downloaded file and extract the contents of the downloaded file into any new folder or location on your computer. If you put the files into a folder you can name the folder anything you want but make sure you remember that this is the latest version of the software.
You don't have to remove your folder containing the old version of the wallet. You can place it in a folder called 'Old versions of dogecoin wallet' if you like.
Now you can click on the Dogecoin icon contained in the new folder to open your version 1.4 wallet.
What happens if I get an error when I open the new wallet?
An error was reported called "11DbException"
If this happens Download this file and place it in the same folder as your updated wallet. Open the file you just downloaded called "Dogecoin OPEN' and wait. This might take 2 or 3 minutes.
Also jtlarousse has found a solution that worked on Windows. Please follow carefully and make backups before starting.
Reebzy might have found a solution for Apple Mac
Blockchain fork 101: The block chain is a ledger or document created containing every transaction that has ever happened. This file can be quite large. Bitcoins ledger is over 15GB. At some point this document/ledger split into two separate documents known as a fork.
How do I know if I am on the right block chain?
Go to your newly updated dogecoin wallet and open it. Click on Help>>Debug next Observe the current block number
*Note the example numbers in the pictures might be out of date by the time you read them
Now go over to http://dogechain.info/chain/Dogecoin . This website is the official Dogecoin blockchain website. Check the block number they're reporting
The number you found in your wallet and the number reported on the website should close. There might be a difference of 100 blocks depending on when you last refreshed your wallet or how long it took for you to get from one step to the next step in this guide and if the dogechain website is lagging.
I'M NOT ON THE CORRECT BLOCK CHAIN
My numbers are very different. How do I get back onto the right block chain?
IMPORTANT
For windows:
1)Close down the Dogecoin wallet client.
2)Go to your data folder: C:\Users[your windows log-in name]\AppData\Roaming\DogeCoin
3)Delete the Dogecoin.conf file. Do not delete the wallet.dat file!
4)Download this update file and place it into the Dogecoin folder where the other file was deleted.
For Apple Mac:
1)Close down the Dogecoin wallet client.
2)Go to your data folder: ~/Libarary/Application Support/Dogecoin
3)Delete the Dogecoin.conf file. Do not delete the wallet.dat file!
4)Download this update file and place it into the Dogecoin folder where the other file was deleted.
Next visit this post by Netcodepool for instructions on how to manually download the correct block chain and install it.
Much Thanks. 
Edit: Some posts were removed from this thread. To limit confusion.
Check this post for details about mining pools that were/are using the wrong fork.
Did you send coins only to find out you're on the wrong chain? See this post to get them back
An Apple Mac support thread has been made by voidref (The mac developer). If you're having troubles please see this thread
Some shibes have reported their wallets wont sync. Please check to make sure your firewall, antivirus, malware scanner or similar programs are not blocking it the wallet. You can add rules to these programs to allow the wallet to make contact with the internet. It's not advised but possible to also disable the software for a short amount of time. Don't forget to enable the software again afterwards.
Is your wallet crashing? Try this helpful tip from gandhikahn or if you're using windows try the 1.4.1 update above.
submitted by 42points to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Why Dogecoin is going to $1... and beyond. Please keep the shibe people. I have a knack for calling the next big thing, and I feel that Dogecoin may just be it!

As I grew up, I always seemed to be on the cusp of everything new, so trust me that I am no stranger to this game...
But on to Dogecoin. There is not just one 'tipping point' in an innovation, there are several and they are catalysts to each other. Dogecoin has reached a tipping point in the crypto-currency scene and I only see it appreciating in value once our first real crash is over.
The possibilities for crypto-currency are numerous and with the government and big banks starting to recognize it for the first time (as evidenced by the success of bitcoin) we are on to a real revolution here.
Now here's the fun catch. Which was the first successful computer company? But who's the hottest today?
When we look at what makes a successful product, it's not just the technical merits that work. If it were, people wouldn't buy iPhones and iPads. Understand that we stand on the release of the first 'iPod' in the Crypto-currency world. That 'iPod' is Dogecoin.
There were mp3 players before the iPod came out. But they were complicated, and scary! Much techno-babble! But then that little device made mp3 players fun and friendly. It was simultaneously a status symbol and a thing that brought you joy just to own it.
Market psychology tells us people buy things for two reason: to show off to others and for the innate joy that comes from owning something. And if you can capture both?
Dogecoin stands on the brink of doing that. Cute and non-threatening but holding real value, and (this is the most critical aspect) allowing people to feel 'important'. Many posters have really hit the nail on the head: no one wants to own 0.02 Bitcoins... bleh. But even when Dogecoin hits 0.01 cents a coin, it will be fun to own 10,000 of them.
We must continue to distribute and grow our fledgling currency. Tell people about it in a lighthearted and joking way. I am letting all my friends know: "Hey, you guys have heard of bitcoins right? Well there's a new coin in town!"
Dogecoin is destined for bigger things; please don't lose your shibe!
I remember a couple of years ago when Bitcoin crashed from $10 a coin to $2, and everyone was laughing at the idiots who bought bitcoins... Doge will have the last laugh. It has all the market traits of a future successful product, very promise.
The total market cap of Dogecoin would be 100 billion Doge with every coin mined. So here's how much Doge would have to be worth for each major magnitude change:
But it will not get there if we do not spread the shibe selflessly! Currency only has value is people believe in it and it has utility. We need to get Doge into as many hands as possible and work to make connections so people can spend Doge for a variety of goods and services.
It is nobelest of currencies. Much love to all of you. May the shibe be ever in your favor, - americanpegasus DPWJddx2RX4nntLeafeM516kRrvQx7YRLx
submitted by americanpegasus to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Of Wolves and Weasels - Day 26 - Ch-ch-chaaanges... or not

Hey all, GoodShibe here!
There's really no need to waste any time on this one, the news dropped early this morning, around 2AM EST on my watch, that our Dogecoin devs have, very quickly - as some have demanded - made a decision on how Dogecoin will change in light of the revelation that our coin is not actually hard-capped at 100 Billion coins.
That decision is... to change nothing.
Dogecoin co-founder ummjackson dropped the news on Github, where a lively discussion was already underway.
"Thanks for contributing to this discussion. Based on everyone’s feedback, we’ve decided to leave the Dogecoin code base as it was originally released, and not implement a change. The goal for the currency is to keep approximately 100 billion coins in circulation - thus after 100 billion Dogecoins are created, rewards will continue at 10k each block. This will help maintain mining and stabilize the number of coins in circulation (considering lost wallets and various other ways coins may be destroyed) at 100 billion."
The decision was shared on /Dogecoin through this thread and while the overall reaction seemed very positive, some were not convinced:
"Itt: poor shibes who want all shibes to be poor." wrote luvasugirls
"I have a feeling many investors will be pulling out now, hope the coin doesn't die cause of this" wrote noelrojo
"What a joke. This is unfortunate. I know a couple people who just invested thousands into this and they are pulling out now. Dogecoin may have just messed up." wrote Chase_Bristow
One thing's for sure, this decision officially puts Dogecoin on the record as the first scrypt-based Cryptocurrency to eschew a hard-cap limit -- Zetacoin, a SHA-256-based coin, has no hard cap -- and thus turn from the 'norm' of enticing users by making the coin a deflationary commodity. (thanks to toddlersnake for the Zetacoin tip)
What this will hold for the future of Dogecoin, no one knows. But with Bitcoin still over a century away from being fully mined - with some saying that Bitcoin may never actually be fully mined - and Litecoin not scheduled to reach it's first halving until October 2015, it will still be quite some time before we get to measure the real-world effects of a successful 'Deflationary' cryptocurrency.
Hard-break.
Okay, 'news article' aside, for my money - whatever I have 'invested' in Dogecoin - I personally feel encouraged by this response. My personal long-view for the currency has always been that DOGE is fantastic for small-to-medium sized online transactions - a currency to be used and mined and shared by everyone. Does this mean that those who've heavily invested in Dogecoin in the early days won't see a profit?
Well, they now have a year and Five Halvings to make their decision on whether Dogecoin will offer a significant, continued ROI (return on investment) as compared to what ever 'inflation' that adding extra coins to the supply might bring.
Personally, I suspect that much of the hullabaloo is, in fact, smoke and mirrors and that, if there is some secret contingent of massive investors willing to pull out now - before even the first halving - then I welcome them to do exactly that. You see, from what I've been reading, there are lots of poor and middle-class shibes who've been pooling their assets, just waiting in the wings for an opportunity to snap up some cheap coins.
I've long said, and I believe it to be true, that the true strength and 'value' of Dogecoin is not in the coin, but the community - and this decision, how it effects us moving forward, will be entirely decided by how - or not - our Community decides to react to the news. Should we begin spreading FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) about our future, then that's what will propagate.
But, you know, my grandpa taught me a simple lesson long ago:
'Do something well, do it consistently, and they will find you'.
All we have to do is keep being an awesome community. Keep working on the outreach, keep making it easier for people to get, share and use their coins. Keep opening up new avenues for people to join in.
Keep tipping.
Keep on having fun.
And they'll find us.
If you're looking for some DOGE-related things to keep you busy and/or interested -- because, let's be honest, the other parts of Reddit fell away a long time ago (I've gotten to the point now where, when all the links on /Dogecoin are spent it's like 'man, nothing new on Reddit' sad face) -- take a look at today's events:
News of note:
New businesses now accepting Dogecoin (show them some love):
Finally, to spotlight a few shibes for great community actions:
If you have anything you'd like to see added to the above segments - especially if you know of a shibe who deserves the spotlight for their actions - please let me know in the comments below.
It's 9:08AM EST and we're at 41.56% of DOGEs found. Our Global Hashrate is spiking from ~88 to ~99 Gigahashes per second but our Difficulty is holding steady at ~1178 after a massive drop from ~1460 about an hour or so ago. Keep hitting those mines, my friends - we've got less than 2 weeks until our first Halving.
As always, I appreciate your support!
GoodShibe
TL;DR: Dogecoin will not become a 'Deflationary' Currency. Some are not happy about this. Many are.
EDIT: For those worrying about the daily price of DOGE, unless you're looking to buy, don't worry about it too much until after the Halvening. I've been predicting for a while now that in the run-up to the Halvening there'd be a massive push to bring DOGE down so that people can do one last buy-in before it halves. This is, mostly, what's going on. If you're looking to buy, keep an eye on the markets - these next two weeks are going to be hell for day-traders.
EDIT 2: For those looking for a crash-course in Shibe-onomics - what all this means anyway - check out sorryyousuck's excellent primer, HERE
submitted by GoodShibe to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Overview of Major Risks of Buying Nyancoins - Version 4

This is the fourth version of the NYAN risks document (based on v3 (v2 and original). These are obsoleted periodically as the old ones get archived to allow for comments again via a new post, to re-examine the risks in light of changes, and for greater visibility.
The purpose of these documents is to provide a best-effort discussion of major risk factors in gambling on NYAN, modeled on the risks disclosure in a 10k (annual report) which is mandated for publicly traded companies in the United States. This document is provided with no guarantee that major risk factors have not been missed, and it is important to recognize my (coinaday) personal bias from holding about one-third of the total supply of NYAN.
Please comment on any risks which are not mentioned here or additional aspects of risks here you think should be further emphasized or any other possible disclosure you think would be helpful to a person considering gambling on NYAN.
Executive summary
Nyancoins have no core developer at the moment, uncertain demand, are traded actively on only one exchange, have had inconsistent blocks, are very vulnerable to 51% attacks, have the potential for serious bugs, an uncertain legal situation, concentrated ownership, depend upon the Internet, may be addictive, and could make you wealthy, which has been alleged to lead to more problems.
Introduction: This is my best attempt to collect every major risk factor from buying Nyancoins, although I can offer no warranty of fitness for this information for any purposes. I believe in honesty and forthrightness. Having this available and obvious is a simple matter of basic decency. Much, hopefully all, of this information has been discussed previously in /nyancoins, but this document in particular is about being up-to-date and central. This page will be updated clearly as appropriate if situations change on a best-effort basis (which may mean updates do not happen for months at times, unfortunately; please ping for faster updates).
If you believe that I am missing something, please note any other major risks you see in the comments.
Core developer: Although we have good general tech support in this community and have put up supporting infrastructure, there is not anyone officially currently working on core client code. This is a significant problem for the long-term, although we are not in any immediate known need of changes.
Demand: NYAN was introduced in 2014 and during the second half of that year had so little demand that it almost died out. In January 2015 I got involved in the coin and for most of 2015 and 2016 I was the majority of the buying pressure. I base these statements on my recollection of the trading history so far and the fact that I have acquired more than 120 million coins, somewhere around 41% of the coins (latest hodling report, June 2017), as well as my observations that I had usually had the leading major bid, and usually the leading bid regardless of size.
In 2017, I have generally not been a major factor in the demand, as I haven’t had money to spare to gamble on NYAN. In June 2017, we have had a spike in buying from an unknown source.
It is unknown whether significant demand for NYAN will continue. Because its value is purely speculative, it is entirely possible that demand for NYAN could simply end. This is a fundamental risk in gambling on NYAN; it is entirely possible that its value will go to zero and not recover.
Exchanges:
Cryptopia is currently the only exchange for Nyancoins with significant volume. If Cryptopia were to fail somehow, it is likely that this would have significant consequences for Nyancoins.
However, there are decentralized exchange technologies, notably CATE, which NYAN2 (my term for the current release, otherwise known as v1.3) should be able to support. On-Reddit exchanges are also possible with tipbots, but require trust as they are not atomic. It should be possible to build an "exchangebot" similarly, although I'm not currently aware of one, but my concept would still have the bot as a trusted central party.
Atomic cross-chain transactions seem to me like a very promising core technology ultimately for building exchanges which can be more proveably secure. They could also allow exchanges to share a common listing protocol as well without having to trust the other exchanges (at least, beyond the core protocol development and maintenance; tanstaafl).
Inconsistent blocks:
Although NYAN is designed to produce a block every minute, there have been times where there has been more than 24 hours between blocks. This results because of an imperfect difficulty function and low base hashing, along with price fluctuations, which can combine to have a low difficulty making the coin attractive for a flood of hashing power which can lead the difficulty function to overcompensate, leaving it stuck with a high difficulty no longer profitable to mine.
I haven’t observed this lately, that is, I don’t recall incidents of this in 2017, but I’ve been paying far less attention to it as well. It is entirely possible for this to recur, as the difficulty function is not fixed (it would require a hard fork to fix it). We seem to have more baseline hashing which helps to avoid this, but it is possible for us to lose that.
A workaround is to use large transaction fees (I've set my client to 337 NYAN) which is enough to cause pools to generally solve a block even if the chain were otherwise stuck. A solution should be included in a hard fork client, but it is unknown when if ever this would be done.
51% attack: Because of the generally quite low hashing power on NYAN, it is highly vulnerable to a 51% attack. Either a leading pool or a new one could choose to do a denial-of-service attack, whether for extortion, lulz, or some other reason (like coinaday being annoying). Such an attack is capable of preventing any transaction processing for as long as it is sustained. I consider this a relatively low risk since I expect we would simply wait it out (and potentially not even notice such an attack for quite a while given the low volume of transactions currently), but it is definitely a potential vulnerability.
Bugs: It is possible that there are bugs in the underlying code. I have never read through all of the bitcoin or nyancoin code, of any version, nor even studied the original bitcoin whitepaper in depth (by the way, we oughta make up a nyancoin whitepaper or ten someday), meaning I have no professional or technical knowledge about whether or not the system is fundamentally sound. I've been going based on "it seems to be working, so it's probably fine", which is, shall we say, more of an engineering than scientific approach.
I have heard reference to a "time warp" bug vulnerability in the KGW difficulty function which Nyancoins has. I do not know details and my understanding is a fix to this would require a fork to change the difficulty function, so I do not anticipate a fix before NYAN3, the term for an eventual hard fork, but it is unknown when if ever this would be done. I consider this vulnerability to be likely to be related to the fundamental weakness to difficulty spikes after large amounts of hashing jumps on the network. Hostile (or simply passing interest with large capacity) hashing does degrade the performance of the network. As a workaround, this class of attack can be mitigated with a transaction to 'unstick' the chain after, since the difficulty function will adjust in the next block after enough wall-time has passed since the last block (so only need one high difficulty solve which can be triggered by a transaction fee).
Legal: Bitcoin faces uncertain legal situations in almost every country. Nyancoin is even more uncertain, as people tend to consider bitcoin and not address impacts on altcoins. Between the potential tax implications and banking regulations and currency laws, there are a wide variety of ways a person could make a felony-level mistake. This can be somewhat mitigated by merely buying and holding, as you won't be responsible for KYC/AML presumably (although arguably an argument could be made in your purchase), and presumably unrealized capital gains wouldn't be taxable (but I am neither a lawyer nor accountant nor any sort of expert on the relevant accounting laws in any country).
Somehow getting legal opinions for Nyancoins in every country would be very useful in my opinion. If Bitcoin and altcoins are well-studied in a given country it should be relatively easy to adapt those opinions and research to Nyancoins, but it would still require some pro bono work in any case. So...hopefully we'll get some lawyer Nekonauts someday who are willing to semi-officially give us an opinion. In the meantime...hope that common sense can save you. If you sell Nyancoins directly, you're going to need to comply with the KYC/AML types of laws of your country. If you're going to do banking operations...may the central bank have mercy on your soul.
I think the best advantage we have is the same bitcoin had for its first years: we're too small for anyone to care. But since we plan to grow significantly, we need to be aware of our legal issues upon scale. Which is to say, whether or not you're allowed to sell 10,000 NYAN to your friend probably has a lot to do with whether your friend legally acquired whatever is being offered in exchange, and whether the value of what you get in return is above a certain level or not. I'm not going to try guessing that level precisely because I know I'll be wrong. $1 is probably fine. $10,000 is probably illegal without some significant licensing. I would suggest either not touching fiat or else deliberately capping it without verification after getting an independent local expert legal opinion.
concentration: The fact that I hold about 41%(? not sure the exact percentage as of Dec 2017 ; need to do updated survey to check; 41% sounds slightly high to me but I'll see...I'll try to update by the end of the year or shortly after) of the currently outstanding NYAN could be a major risk factor, particularly if I do not act in the best long-term interests of the strength of Nyancoins. For instance, I could pull my bids, sell only a small part of my holdings, crash the market, and potentially buy a lot of volume for a lower price. While I cannot foresee any circumstance under which I would do this, it is certainly conceivable that I could be financially, legally, or morally obligated to do so if I were to become insolvent.
Internet outage: if the Internet goes down, we hit a very nasty scenario. We can't process transactions, and all the miners go into a race to make 'useless' blocks on their own. If the Internet were never to come back up, Nyancoins would be dead. If there is a daylong internet outage, the longest blockchain discovered after, presumably representing the most hashing power dedicated to empty blocks during that outage, will win. So I suppose the block rewards in that case are for having the faith in Nyancoins to keep hashing and storing the blockchain during the day without the Internet.
addictive: This was a curiosity to me when I started. Now it's an obsession for me. I'm constantly thinking about how I can help to smooth the path for Nyancoins to grow stronger and better and more valuable. You may find that once you start to realize the impact you can have upon Nyancoins, and that Nyancoins can have upon you, that you start to become addicted as well. It is possible to substitute another addiction in its place, such as dogecoins or pcp, but it is not recommended.
Nyancoin addictions are considered 'mostly harmless'. The exception is if you go 'full coinaday' and start to accumulate more than 10% of your assets in Nyancoins. In this, this is essentially a variety of gambling addiction. I would argue that it beats roulette because you can tilt the odds in your favor, but then, I would argue that, wouldn't I?
mo' nyan mo' problems: Some people have claimed that more money leads to more problems. Since nyan is money, it follows as a consequence of the conjecture. Should this be the case, your increasing nyan could potentially lead to such problems in the future as: enhanced attention from revenue collection services of all kinds (governmental and private), swarms of fake friends and gold-diggers, excessive risk-taking as a result of feelings of invincibility, an increase in certain varieties of targeted marketing, possible disqualification for asset-based welfare for you (or even your children, for instance college financial assistance), an inability to remember how many houses you own, or other serious problems.
Conclusion
There are a variety of different risks in buying Nyancoins. I believe the most serious one is the developer issue. If those of us who have found or come back to NYAN abandon it, it could die. Otherwise, I consider the risks generally manageable, but exchange failure or a currently unknown bug could do serious damage to the ecosystem as well.
This self-certified infallible message has been brought to you as a Public Service Announcement of the NYAN Public Relations Council, a transparent front organization of notoriously lovable philanthropist and major NYAN hodler coinaday.
submitted by coinaday to nyancoins [link] [comments]

Of Wolves and Weasels - Day 28 - Fun but not for all

Hey all, GoodShibe here!
One of the hardest parts of being an altcoin is living under Uncle Bitcoin's shadow. He's big, he's successful and it's kind of fun to poke at him from time to time because, hey, we want our time to shine too.
I remember Uncle Bitcoin when he was much more fun, much more laid back, but it's easy to forget the incredibly hard life he's had to get where he is now.
Years and years of struggle and strife - so when he sees us having fun, partying it up -- even if, somewhere, he's happy for us, it's hard to not feel a bit of resentment.
And I think that's fair.
You see, Uncle Bitcoin started from scraps, just like us - being spit on and laughed at, called a joke and a 'scam'. Worse, he started all alone, with no support system to call his own. The internet was a very different place then, and it's easy to forget how hard he had it.
But, luckily, there was something about him, his persistent, easy-going nature, that had inspired a small but dedicated group of friends and, together, they helped him through a really rough patch.
Imagine having these brief moments where everyone suddenly likes you and then hates you and then one minute you're worth something and then the next minute you're back in the dirt again. How hard would it be to keep on standing there? To keep on picking yourself back up? First they raise you, then they crash you. But each time he stood up, dusted himself off, and came away that much stronger for the experience. He toughened up. Grew a thicker skin.
Uncle Bitcoin persevered. He dug in his heels and refused to take no for an answer. He stood up for what he believed was right and it didn't matter that there were WAY, WAY bigger kids in the yard, Uncle Bitcoin made sure he was there, putting himself in harm's way for the little guy. Stepping full-on into problems that, well, staying out of probably would've made his life easier. But he cared and he did it anyway, because it was the right thing to do. It earned him some well-deserved praise, but even the most ardent praise fades in time.
You see, for all the bumps in the road, on his climb up, it turned out that his biggest challenge would be those incredible long stretches where nothing happens. Sitting alone, with yourself, in silence, can sometimes be the cruelest punishment of all. His entire life had been this crazy rollercoaster, how the heck was he going to sit through months and months of quiet?
It's a hard thing to feel under-appreciated. Worse, it sneaks up on you. One minute you're laughing it up, the next it hits you like a ton of bricks. You realize that, even when you're surrounded by this great group of friends, you start to feel like you're all alone.
And sometimes, you start to feel like you need to 'change', to break out of a 'rut'; you find yourself hanging out with the wrong crowd. It's understandble, heck, even normal -- you're young, you've been kicked your whole life, why not have some fun, right? And so, it may be easy to stand back and judge, but when he started experimenting with drugs, hanging with unsavory characters... it kind of made sense. It's tough being young and alone. Full of great ideas and good intentions in a world that thinks you're worthless.
But these people make you feel good and appreciated for the first time in a long while. They give you a purpose. And, heck, after all that you've been through... isn't it nice just to have a purpose? Sure, all those people who already hated you continue to deride you, but so what? They never cared anyway.
And so, yes, Uncle Bitcoin spent a good deal of time figuring out who he was, trying to get his head together -- soul searching. But, thankfully, his friends never gave up on him -- continually working on his behalf, cheering him on to friends and their parents, trying to help him find new places and better people to associate with. And when that time did come, when he realized that, while fun, these places, these people weren't really helping him, he started to move on. And those who waited for him welcomed him back with open arms.
They had done amazing things for their friend while he was away - their own passion and fervor inspiring others to come see what all the fuss was about. The amazing talks about how Uncle Bitcoin could really, actually, change the world were gaining steam. People were talking about him, in a good way, because of his friends. And that's when the phone calls started to come. People patting him on the back, random people sending emails and offering him Dollars. In fact, they started throwing money at him like crazy. Out of nowhere, it suddenly seemed like everyone was his friend - can you imagine what that must've felt like? To have been spit on, alone, for all this time and then suddenly, 'hey, here's a million dollars!'. People telling Uncle Bitcoin their hopes and dreams, asking him to call their friends in China or Russia. People offering connections and opportunities and vast riches.
But he didn't want to forget his friends, those who never gave up on him - who'd been with him from the beginning. So he brought them all with him. Let them feel the joy, the success of all their hard work. For a moment he'd started to really feel like he'd arrived.
And then that phone call came - a friend of a friend, asking if he wouldn't mind hopping over to China to meet some associates. They were very interested in what he could do for them... and why wouldn't he? And so he travelled to China and, man, for a kid from the streets to see the Middle Kingdom in full effect... there's nothing like it. And they wowed him, hit him with the full grandeur. Everyone wanted to meet him, everyone wanted to touch him. Can you blame him if he got a bit caught up in it? And still, he brought his friends with him. Together they stood in awe of the multitudes who wanted his help, who believed in what he could do for them. And those few weeks were amazing, a party every night -- the finest dishes, the prettiest ladies, fireworks, the whole shebang.
But there's always a bigger fish. And when these big boys stomped onto the scene, people scattered. They didn't mind Uncle Bitcoin showing up unannounced, but they were really pissed they weren't getting a cut of the action. So they started laying down the law, telling him how it was going to be in their house. And, well, these big boys have big voices and when they yell, people scatter. And scatter they did, fleeing into the wind, leaving him standing alone once again -- a party crashing to a halt right before his eyes, unable to do anything about it. His protests drowned out by screams of panic.
And so he finds himself back on a plane, heading home - thoughts running amok in his head, wondering where it all went wrong, what did he do to deserve this? As if that wasn't enough of a kick, he barely drags himself back home, desperate to throw himself on the bed when some very scary men show up at his door - dragging him before the US Senate.
So many questions -- a few DO see the good in him, but some... some wonder aloud if he's not some sort of terrorist. He's got that dark past, remember? He could've made some REALLY wrong friends. Uncle Bitcoin stands there in shock, watching these people talk about him like he's not even there - glossing over all the good he's done, focusing on how scary he can -- or could be.
Imagine all that, imagine the years of hard work and suffering and strife... and then one day you get a knock at the door. Such wow! Your cousin (very, very far removed) prances up to the door, chatting on his cellphone about his sudden burst of popularity - he's a fun kid and you're happy that he's doing well, you can appreciate the kindness in his eyes, the great group of friends he's managed to pull together in such a short amount of time. But his words can't help but sting when he calls you 'stuck up' or tosses his money in your face while complaining that you're such a cheapskate.
You can't blame them, they're young, they don't know, but it hurts in a way you've never felt before. Watching them dance down a road you've forged is both entrancing and maddening at the same time -- pride and joy mixing with a sudden, violent need to kick a dog in the ass.
So maybe Uncle Bitcoin seems a bit tough and stodgy sometimes, maybe it's easy to laugh and point and say 'hey, c'mon, don't be such a stick in the mud'. But, my friends, he's fought very hard to get where he is. Suffered lots of indignities along the way - and still has a fight ahead of him (as we do, in our own way).
I ask you to cut our Uncle some slack. It's easy to say 'yeah, we couldn't be here without him' but to understand it, to really get it, we need to give him some room, not be all up in his face.
Okay?
It's 8:49AM EST and we're at 43% of DOGEs found. Our Global Hashrate has taken a dive from ~91 to ~79 in the last hour and our Difficulty is also falling from ~1387 to ~1282. Today's a great day to hit the mines people! Let's bring it home!
The halving is only 10 Days away.
As always, I appreciate your support!
GoodShibe
TL;DR: Let's give Uncle Bitcoin some space, okay?
EDIT: sorryyousuck's 'Shibe-onomics Vol 2' is up! Go give it a read! It's long, but worth the time investment! http://www.reddit.com/dogecoin/comments/1wzi96/shibeonomics_vol_2_money_finance_politics_and/
EDIT 2: If you're feeling bored today, Tezcatlipokemon has proposed an adventure. Take a look!
submitted by GoodShibe to dogecoin [link] [comments]

They called me crazy. People laughed when I bought BTC and then DOGE.

In 2012, a while after the first Bitcoin crash I decided to invest.
My research led me to believe there was still a lot value in the idea of a cryptocurrency and that it was undervalued.
I bought 25000 BTC at about $8/BTC. I figured it was a long term investment and I would sell if it ever got to $30/BTC.
This was about 20% of my net worth at the time.
The price sky rocketed over the next year. I held on for a while and it was a wild ride to say the least.
After the second crash in early 2013 I still held on, I knew this wasn't even close to the top.
At $400/BTC I figured I had made $10 million and this is more money than I could ever need and started selling.
In August of 2014 I decided to make a small stake in Dogecoin.
I bought in for a bit over 1 billion Doge at around 27 Satoshi.
Again I believed it was under valued and there was potential for growth. It would at least return to its early 2014 price.
My investment has already more than doubled in 6 weeks and I'm not selling anytime soon.
The great times are just around the corner. The moon is almost here.
Keep on keepin' on shibes, and remember to tip the developers
submitted by lunar_shibe to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Part 1

I am the creator of Twitch Plays Pokemon, two years ago the first run started and since that time I intentionally revealed very little about myself and did not publicly take credit for creating Twitch Plays Pokemon.
The reason for this is that throughout most of my life I have been struggling with mental illness (that was at one point professionally diagnosed as social anxiety and depression) due to growing up in an unhealthy and unsupportive environment and having no long-term social connections that weren't abusive, even family.
With all the attention Twitch Plays Pokemon was getting I didn't want my life to be the focus, I also didn't want to force myself to appear happy and sociable when interacting with the public and the community when I didn't feel that way. I just wanted to have fun on the computer and not think about my life.
The close timing of the first run's launch to Valentine's Day is not a coincidence. The saturation of the topic of relationships across most media made it very difficult to avoid bringing up very upsetting memories of a relationship that ended approximately two years prior to TPP's launch and a friendship that ended approximately 10 years before that. I'll go into some detail about this in the next few paragraphs.
'J' was a friend I had in primary school, she was in the year above me but because the schools combined years for some reason she ended up in my class. 'J' was skilled with computers, experienced with using the internet and was the one who introduced me to emulation. She had to temporarily move overseas with her family and knew she was coming back to the same city but they didn't know if it was going to be next year or the year after and as she was in 5th grade at the time this was the difference between a final year of primary school or moving on to high-school. Every day I went to school the following year I had some hope that she would be there but it never happened. The last I heard of her was a few years later when ('A') the daughter of my mother's friend asked me if I knew her, I wanted to ask her to put me in contact with 'J' but I didn't because I knew 'A' had feelings for me, also at that time there were problems with family that drained my capacity to deal with difficult social situations.
Unexpectedly shortly after the end of a horrible relationship with someone deceitful and manipulative I met someone who will be referred to as 'T'. Whilst I didn't realize it then 'T' was a very similar person to 'J'. At the time I had forgotten about 'J' and only thought of 'T' as someone whose personality was unusually similar to my own, a sentiment she expressed without me having revealed to feeling that way beforehand. Whilst she liked me very much her family did not, particularly my lack of conventional education or full-time employment, as 'T' was planning on moving out from her family in the near-term and prepared to disregard her parents' wishes this wasn't enough to end the relationship but it did cause it an immense amount of stress and made it very difficult to spend time together in person. A miscommunication that went undetected resulted in an argument that caused the relationship to fail. The difficulty in maintaining the relationship was already so much that recovery wasn't possible.
Based on previous relationship experience I was expecting to be upset on a day-to-day basis for only a month or two but even a year later it was still going. It was a bit over a year 'T' leaving my life when I was going through my possessions and I came across a thing that 'J' gave me and had kept stored away. This brought up all of the memories of losing contact with her and how that loss affected me. These memories also made me realize that both me and 'T' developed our understandings of what we each wanted from relationships under very similar conditions, a very strong childhood friendship whose advancement could not be realized and difficulty in correlating values and behaviors observed in parents, peers and media to that understanding.
Having horrible memories of events that I thought I had gotten over and moved on from was extremely demoralizing, there's a lot in my life that has been or is being an immense struggle for me and the realization that I won't be able to permanently move on from potentially any of it made me very discouraged from enduring what then became a remarkably worse depression. This was a little under a year before TPP started.
Difficulty in being able to focus on and enjoy programming as I once did due to frequently occurring memories of the things I talked about above made it increasingly difficult to work. Not long before I created TPP I was thinking about having to quit programming due to how much more I was struggling even on simple tasks. One day things got so bad that I couldn't work at all, I still wanted to get the feeling of productivity so I worked on something simple and stupid instead to "sharpen my Javascript ability".
Fortunately that simple and stupid thing was Twitch Plays Pokemon! And with its ongoing success I have been able to maintain a somewhat greater income for less stressful and much more consistent work which has done a lot to ease my anxiety slightly and to help me not have such a horrible outlook for my future and get through difficult situations that would have gone very differently otherwise.
Due to how much I keep to myself I've never had much opportunities to thank the community for their support. Having something to get up for each day has helped immensely in keeping myself distracted and feeling productive. I'm extremely thankful that I got to spend the past two years this way.
When I was growing up I had an interest in game design, I even once had aspirations of being a professional game creator (in many of the games I played it was seemingly the programmer that "created" the game), but me developing social anxiety, learning more about the industry and watching the few Australia-based studios that existed close down made me lose interest, as I saw it even if I did manage to make it into the industry I wouldn't be able to compete and even if I could the chances of working on something I want to work on without other people meddling were extremely low.
MMORPGs are the genre that for a long time has interested me the most, puzzlingly I think every MMORPG I have played is terrible. An unbounded number of people interacting with a single system is extremely interesting to me. It's admittedly stretching the definition but it was very fun to pretend to be a world-famous MMORPG designer for a while, definitely a highlight of my life despite really struggling at the time.
Early on someone high up at Twitch (CEO?) wanted to get in contact through Skype but because the last time I used Skype was to communicate with T I declined. I regret that, especially since I ended up using Skype to keep in contact with one of Twitch's community managers eventually anyway.
I declined Geoff Keighley's invitation to accept the TGA award that TPP won, my social anxiety makes travelling alone and giving a speech not possible but I didn't explain this very well because I was upset at having to decline and I'm pretty sure it came across as rude, I feel really bad about that.
I mentioned this before but due to a partially botched backup I lost my cryptocurrency wallets, while I had already exchanged most of the bitcoins all the dogecoins were lost.
Social anxiety made me decided against community involvement if possible and one result of this was my rejection of the request to promote Level Limit's YouTube channel, he produced great coverage of many runs of Twitch Plays Pokemon, I regret not promoting his content, at least it did well on the TPP subreddit which I also regret not promoting.
Near the beginning of the first anniversary run someone sent me a very long and heartfelt message about how Twitch Plays Pokemon helped them through a difficult time in their life, I put the message up on my secondary monitor so I could re-read it throughout the day and work on a response but my browser crashed and I couldn't find the message again, I still feel very bad about this, if that person is reading this could you please find the sent message and resend it?
I'm currently in my mid-20s, any information that contradicts that is fabricated.
submitted by Twitch-Plays-Pokemon to twitchplayspokemon [link] [comments]

Of Wolves And Weasels - Day 12 - Hoping for a Bubble...?

Hey all! Goodshibe here!
Serious talk day, it seems...
Good things come and good things go. One of those things is 25 Satoshi Dogecoins. If you had confidence in the coin - in the community - to buy and hold even when things were looking shaky, you're being rewarded in a big way right now.
Heck, even if you bought in at 60, you've got yourself a tidy profit... should you choose to sell.
I know it's a sign of the moment - our jump to 80-90 satoshis has me reeling a bit too. But, not just today, I'm hearing lots of talk about people who are (quietly or otherwise) hoping this is all just a big bubble. That any day now, the world will collapse around them and they'll be here to pick up the pieces. And I understand that - it's human nature to want to have more. But at the same time let's examine what the reality of those hopes are.
Those of us who've been around since the start -- watched it grow to 200 Satoshis on the market, then crumble and fall to 25, understand that bubbles aren't something to wish for. We had the luxury of newness, the ability to mentally check the box in our heads that allowed us to say 'okay, yeah, this makes sense'. That this kind of crash was practically a given for an unsupported coin. It helped us make our peace - and, in some ways, ensured we were strapped in for the long haul with this coin. My first Dogecoin 'buy-in' was at around 150 satoshis -- and I did not know then what I know now. Be that about the markets, or trading or anything. I had some shards of bitcoin kicking around from various faucets, etc and I bought in. I think I got a few hundred DOGEs at that price. I tried to play speculator when the coin was falling (another mistake) bought some bitcoin, like $50 worth, and bought in again at 80 satoshis, thinking 'it's not going to go any lower!'. And it did.
That was a fun ride down, let me tell you. Watching my 'money' drain away. Again, I didn't know anything about anything. I did not have a good time. Thankfully, I found this community - this wonderful group of people who looked at the wreckage of our rocket, and with what could only have been a hint of madness in their eyes, had the utter gall to look at the sky and howl 'TO THE MOON!' anyway... and start building a new rocket out of the wreckage.
That's when I fell in love with this community.
That's when I became GoodShibe.
And from there, we've come so far. In just under 6 weeks, this amazing community has come together under the mantra 'who care's what it's worth, this is fun!'. It's that mantra that has brought our community to 30,000 Shibes. It's that mantra that has inspired us, together, to build Dogecoin into something that is starting to 'have value'. Moreso, the outside world is starting to agree with us.
We're not an unsupported coin anymore.
We're getting attention. We're getting new shibes joining the party every day -- who don't know our history, brief as it is -- and who don't have a stake, yet, in the community.
I guess my point here, my friends, is that I feel like we need to have a chat about what success is. And the way to do that is to take a look back, at our brief, but amazing history. To see the the trials and tribulations that have made this community what it is. We need to chronicle it for the future. To prevent Dogecoin from becoming Bitcoin-lite, full of businessmen only looking to profit.
You see, while greed is not a 'bad' thing -- it, like many things, is a natural motivator -- it does tend to limit one's view. It focuses you on the moment and not the long view. And hoping for all that we've built together to crumble around us, is really only a vision of greed.
I invite some of the shibes who've been here from the start to share their stories, help them be remembered.
And for those of you just joining us: Who cares if you bought in at 30 or 50 or 90? Take a look at the long view. Ask yourself: In one year, do I believe - no matter where it goes tomorrow - that Dogecoin will be worth more than it is today? If that answer is yes, then buy in now and help make 90 the one that new shibes look back on wistfully, saying 'man, I wish I could've gotten in back at 90'.
It's 9:09 AM EST, your global hashrate is hitting high at 55 Gigahashes per second and Difficulty is holding strong at ~682. My best guess is that Litecoiners, seeing how hard it is to make a buck on Litecoin these days, have all caught on to Dogecoin. Whether they're all going to start cashing those DOGEs out for LTC or whether they'll hold them will decide how DOGE fares for the next little while.
As always, I thank you all for your support!
GoodShibe
EDIT: I've sent @notch a 5000 DOGE tip on Twitter to see if he'll allow us to spend Doges on Mojang games. Check it out here
submitted by GoodShibe to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Of Wolves and Weasels - Day 135 - Our Dual-Natured Shibes: We Stand Together

Hey all! GoodShibe here!
Silly and Serious.
If there's one ever-constant 'battle' that goes on in this sub it's between the dual-natures of our fellow Shibes.
Memes get voted to the top and/or our coin drops in value and serious Shibes start worrying and 'wanting to talk serious' about the future of our coin and then that starts to flood the frontpage... and then the silly Shibes complain that we're getting too serious... so they start upvoting memes.
And so the cycle begins again.
The serious Shibes feeling like they're not being heard -- not necessarily realizing that their questions may have already been answered -- and the silly Shibes feeling like they're losing what makes Dogecoin special.
Having been here for... a while... now, this cycle comes and goes like clockwork and there's nothing wrong with it... but it exists.
And knowing that it exists, watching it it unfold, well, I'd like to offer a bit of assistance, if I may.
Because I see a lot of Shibes swimming up stream, fighting the current, getting upset that their ideas aren't getting traction.
Worse, they're getting bitter about it.
So, let's start by talking to the Serious Shibes first:
There's a palpable sense of frustration out there on the sub, that 'if we just did this thing' then everything would be better.
But it's not that simple.
Our problem is one of time. Dogecoin moves extremely fast. It was designed that way because our creators, thinking it was a joke, thought that the lifespan of a joke would be about a year or so.
Market penetration, even as good as we are, takes time. Lots of time and lots of effort. Bitcoin took 5 years to get where they are.
We're 5 months old, but, in some ways we've done much, much more than they have.
Long story short: We're going to be in a rough place for the next little while - and that's just the reality of it. We'll get through it, if we stick together. Dogecoin is turning out to be a long-term investment. I know there are a lot of serious Shibes out there watching all these other, much sexier, pump and dump coins fly by, crashing into walls, thinking 'man', I could've made some money off of that.
And, hey, I know more than a few of you have other holdings. And that's fine. But if you want to be 'serious' about anything, be serious about growing your investment in Dogecoin. Spend less time wishing we'd change algos and roll up your sleeves and build the foundation for your coin to grow in value. A lot of this wishing we'd change algos, etc - IMHO - is based on the idea that someone else should do your work for you. (Clearly, if you're already doing this work, then don't be offended, because I'm not talking to you).
If you want to have a serious discussion, be serious investors, then start being proactive and get more businesses to accept Dogecoin. Start working on building a bootstrap Service economy in the interim, until we can get the valuation up. There are so many things that need to be done around here, that our serious Shibes can be doing, that can help to bring up our valuation.
You don't have to personally believe that 1 Doge = 1 Doge, and I get that the stronger our coin is, the more purchasing power it can have -- I want that too, I like donating to charities and doing amazing things with our coin. But I'm only one Shibe. There's only so much I can do in a day along with having a full-time job and a family to support.
I get that not all of you will be down for this, but for those of you who are, you're the ones I'm talking to. June is DOGE4DOGE month. I want to see posts go up and ideas flying and let's get ourselves out of this rut -- because only we can dig ourselves out.
Okay, to my silly Shibe friends.
The heart of Dogecoin is beating strong. It's not going anywhere. I love you all and you're integral to what makes us important. You're the smiling face we need when new-Shibes arrive, you keep the sub humming and full of new content and addictive as all heck.
We move fast, it's in our nature - we like to run and play. We need you to keep us laughing.
But you also bring important perspective to serious issues - so, please, try to take part in those when they come up. I know that some of you stay out of those conversations because you don't necessarily understand it all but it's important to learn those things as well. Being a well-balanced Shibe is important, being able to switch off a silly hat and put on a serious one, while knowing that you can go back to being silly at any time, is integral to who we are.
I say this because I know that memes are very easy to upvote to the front of the page, they're quick to process and easy to laugh at -- but we need you in the serious discussions as well. You may not even realize the brilliant ideas you have hiding away.
And, more importantly, we need you right there beside us, digging away with us. Helping to build the future of our coin, together. It's going to take ALL Shibes to fix our predicament - and, yes, it is a predicament. Not a world-ending problem, not a sky-is-falling, we're-all-doomed problem.
But it is a problem.
Our dual-nature makes us strong - our ability to be serious or silly, whenever we want, knowing that those roles don't define us, knowing that if things get too stressful being 'serious' we can say 'screw it' and go off and play for a bit... it's important to keep that in mind.
And vice-versa.
Sometimes being silly, we get the sense that we're not doing enough, or we get worried that things are bad, so we put on our serious hats and get to work.
It's going to take ingenuity to get us back on track - our brilliant Shibes, all of you, silly or serious, whatever you feel like today, to make our coin be able to last for the long haul.
And I get it, some of you didn't sign up to 'work' - and that's fine, there are other coins.
But if you love Dogecoin - if you think that what we are, who we are and what we bring to the world has value.
Then stand here with me, let's build a plan and let's get to work.
Together.
It's 8:50AM EST and we're at 79.02% of DOGEs found. Our Global Hashrate is on the downswing from ~45 to ~43 Gigahashes per second and our Difficulty is spiking from ~633 to ~970.
If you can mine, let's get out there and mine - try to put DOGEs in the hands of Shibes.
As always, I appreciate your support!
GoodShibe
EDIT: If you're an European Shibe, ShibeShen has a business proposal for you.
EDIT 2: In preparation for DOGE4DOGE I've started a 'how to talk about Dogecoin' Workshop here: http://www.reddit.com/dogecoin/comments/26babprepping_for_doge4doge_workshop_how_to_talk_to/ - let's get prepped now so that we can hit the ground running in June.
submitted by GoodShibe to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Dogecoiner (and mostly lurker) since Day 1 speaking out.

I've seen Dogecoin grow since day 1. I remember mining thinking this is the most hilarious, dumb and weird thing the internet has created in a long long time.
Lurking 4chan for years I saw threads all over /g/ spread around talking about Dogecoin. Day 2 geek.com and geekosystems.com released articles about Dogecoin, this was the first time a cryptocurrency was ever covered second day of release. About day 5 I brought 10 million Dogecoins from CoinedUp.com the first exchange to trade Dogecoin, I thought this coin was going to go viral. The hashrate went from 2MH/s to 500MH/s within just 6 days of release.
The announcement that Doge is going on Cryptsy made shibes filled with excitement, from there I saw the coin skyrocket from about 40 Satoshis to a high of 230. My investment more than quadrupled and I was so happy that not only was my investment increase in value but that a coin I believed in had a market of great people that believed in it too.
Of course after that rise there was a crash. It went down from 230 satoshis all the way to 23. All hope was lost and the community started crying for Jackson Palmer to make some sort of change and save us all. Some blamed dogeflation, others on the fact that this was a meme coin. There was a lot of things to point the finger at and everyone found everything possible to blame.
After reaching a low of 23 satoshis a rocket was strapped onto Doge and it rose from 23 satoshis to 140 over night! We were thrilled and excited! Bitcoiners, Litecoiners, BBQcoiners and Peercoiners alike were amazed by the rebound and quickly shut their mouths about the idiocy of Dogecoin. All the while the community developed a plan for the Sochi Olympics and the Jamaican bobsled team. Excitement was vibrant and we were happily tipping. I donated 1 million Doge to a friend who told me about Dogecoin day 1 and we were all excited.
Now lets just fast forward to where we are now. Despair has hit the market, posts blaming other shibes for dumping the coins, why the community shouldn't keep it's donating culture and why the coin has fallen the way it has. Honestly it's no different from what's happened before...
Fellow shibes there will be another market high. This is just a temporary swing within a market that is growing quickly and people that are enthusiastic about it's future. There's going to be falls but there will also be gains. Think about how to develop Doge's infrastructure through apps, services and marketplaces accepting Doge. Think about where we'll donate to next, think about the wonderful things the Dogecoin community has done and what we'll do for the future.
Guys this isn't the end, it's the beginning. It's still early days and we still haven't seen close to what Doge is capable of. I'm a heavy trader and miner but I'll never be attached to any coin as much as I'm attached to Dogecoin.
I'll continue spreading the word of Doge and I'm going to keep trading to grab as much Doge as I can because I believe that this community has connected crypto and humanity together more than any other coin ever has.
TL;DR: Much history, such moon, very believe.
Hold your head high /dogecoin. We'll go to the moon so long as we keep the enthusiasm we've had since the coin was at its high. I believe in this coin and the community. To the moon!
submitted by doctorpinslove to dogecoin [link] [comments]

Don't buy into this rally. Just a warning. Explanation inside. (/Bitcoin/ banned me for posting this)

90% of people are still 90% down.
This market is not going anywhere, anytime soon.
Before you downvote me.... just for angst or hope against getting your money back. Hear me out.
I made 500% gains in January. Got out. Warned everyone. Tether. Manipulation.
I'll buy when the stops are broken and Eth flash crashes to $0.10 again
You have to consider. It's now September. Last November 2017, Roger Ver was calling for BCH to replace BTC within 6 months. Everyone's prospect about this market has been blinding and extreme, and for the most part upside down/misguided.
When its 9 months into 2018, and were every bi-weekly up/down 30% its unjustified for the current centralized system, to invest in a speculative asset that is becoming increasingly more volatile every month. We should be seeing less volatility. The chances now, of ETF's ever happening become presumibly worse. It's dangerous for regulators to also at this point announce an ETF, just for the simple nature that it will create another positive feedback bubble loop.
I don't know where some of you guys find the extra money under the cushions and couches... to catch what is essentially a falling knife.
God speed to you if Eth is $1000 next year... but...
The technicals are so manipulated, flawed, incoherent.
RSI, MACD, Bolingers, near meaningless, and that's whats scaring away everyone.
We've only had 10 years of track history in crypto, so Im hesitant in treating the system with accurate technicals.
The stock market indices have a track history of 100+ years. After time and stability, measurements, certain indicators were introduced. Bollinger Bands, etc. Do these measurements aid in predicting where BTC or your favorite coin is going? In my opinion, no. Now, its MOMO, Social Media, and #Yacht.
Long term, sure... were still up... or anyone that bought in prior to 2017 basically. So, I guess the moving average, over 10 years - is an okay indicator, but wait....
When AMD announced earnings a few weeks ago - they made a bold statement stating their 3rd/4th quarter revenue on GPU's for crypto would be near zero. Which is a very very bearish stance.
These huge price swings are freaking everyone out. Im not gonna use the "T" word yet..... as is the political climate -- and most politicians simply won't come out and say.... Tulip Mania.
The Dutch East India Company was the largest company of its time, valued at $7.1 adjusted for inflation. All because of... spice... opium... and most of all a bubble in tulips.
I'm more inclinced to study a bubble right now, so much so than the individual coins. But, the system as a whole intrigues me. Regardless if it goes up or down.
It's already been concluded that Tether was behind December's bubble. Academics have already proven this. It's pretty settled, like climate science. Going forward, with that conclusion in mind, put yourself in SEC regulators shoes now. There are too many questions, with not enough answers. There is no transparency. The exchanges, and the transfer of USDT is causing havoc in the system. If Bitfinex is the biggest exhcange in the world by volume, and they've basically had zero banking/shady banking since April of 2017, until "the largest exchange in the world" is put in its place - I honestly just have a fatalistic viewpoint on crypto.
Coinbene pulled off the same trickery. Can you explain the BitForex volume on this picture? This is now. How would one explain this to SEC regulators? https://imgur.com/a/SsNQjFW
The majority of the members in this group are going to be long term bullish on cryptocurrency. I cant untangle that or the get quick rich mentality. The goal is to make money, but also to have discussion; on the flaws of the current marketplace. There are no assurances it will go up.
This isn't the stock market.
This isn't even OTC assets. Not saying Bitcoin or Crypto overall will go to zero. I'm only trying to ascertain my perspective, and pass it onto some of the more bullish investors. I have money in, but more or less sitting on sidelines with majority posted gains. I want to atleast share the other side of the mirror.
Unlike previous, crashes, corrections, there are certainly more variables. In the old days, you didn't have this number of alt coins. You didn't have the type of manipulation, social media advocates (Dennis Rodman; Potcoin; John McCafe). You didn't have Tether. You didn't have exchanges locked out by banks. Or government regulations, or China saying no. You definately had exchanges collapse. Back then, people still looked at Bitcoin as a growth opportunities and this futurisitic way of paying for goods. When China backed out, it changed my perception of the future. Also, everyone thought the transfer of Bitcoin would be free. Turned out, thats a big fat lie. That's why the system was basically built.
The banks and governments have crypto by the balls. And when MJ is legalized in the USA, all the PotCoin whales are just going to dump via Eth. (Joking). The only winners right now, are the exchanges (and circa this post Dogecoin). I still have not seen or heard of any winners in the decentralized era. AuraDao was supposed to be that. It's not.
Anyways, Vitalik B. was quoted the other day as saying we'll never see the 1000x folds again in our lifetime.
Meaning, if we invest today in 60 years we won't be Warren Buffet Jr. I think the overall sentiment is, (Im just speaking for the majority of people) is, people saw a technology. Then saw how the technology was exploited. In an unregulated environement. The sentinment is, unregulated currencies are fatally flawed. So, while they might stick around I think Dec 2017 was a one time only. Bitcoin rose to fame like Rhonda Rhousey. Then she lost. Sure, shes still around.. I guess. :P
~$6200'ish is the break even point for mining BTC profitably (across generational AntMiners). Just thought I'd throw that tidbit out there. You might see some strange 'floors' and 'supports' that look unnatural in the coming days.
At thats the bottom line, cause Stone Cold said so. *Glass breaks*
submitted by infectedmethod to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

The owners of Blockstream are spending $75 million to do a "controlled demolition" of Bitcoin by manipulating the Core devs & the Chinese miners. This is cheap compared to the $ trillions spent on the wars on Iraq & Libya - who also defied the Fed / PetroDollar / BIS private central banking cartel.

At this point, that's really the simplest "Occam's razor" explanation for Blockstream's "irrational" behavior.
Once you let go of your irrational belief that Blockstream's owners actually want to get a "return" on their $75 million investment, from "innovations" such as sidechains technology (Lightning Network - LN) - only then will you be able to see that Blockstream's apparently "irrational" behavior is actually perfectly rational.
They say their goal is to "get rich" from LN. And if you believe that, I have a Dogecoin I'd like to sell you.
What are the real goals of Blockstream's owners?
Blockstream's owners don't give a fuck about the Rube Goldberg vaporware which some focus group christened "the Lightning Network". That name is just there to placate the masses of noobs who congregate on /bitcoin.
The owners of Blockstream are laughing at Adam Back as he continues to labor in isolation, the stereotypical math PhD who is clueless about economics, toiling away creating a slow, overpriced, centralized "level 2" payment layer on top of Bitcoin - a complicated contraption which may never work. They have neutralized him - but meanwhile, he thinks he's a rock star now, as "CEO of Blockstream". Little does he know he is the worst "collaborator" of all.
Investors are risk-averse
If Blockstream's owners really wanted to get rich from LN, do you really think they would freeze the "max blocksize" at 1 MB for the next year, when this 1-year freeze obviously risks destroying Bitcoin itself (along with their investment)?
Investors are not stupid - and they are risk-averse. They know that if there's no Bitcoin, then there's no Lightning - so their $75 million investment would go out the window.
And all the "Core" devs have actually gone on the record stating (in their less-guarded moments, or before they signed their employment contracts with Blockstream) that 2 MB blocks would work fine - even 3-4 MB blocks. Empirical research by miners has shown that 3-4 MB blocks - or even bigger - would work fine right now.
So why aren't the Blockstream investors pressuring the Core devs to go to 2 MB now, to remove the risk of Bitcoin failing?
If Blockstream did the "rational" thing and agreed to 2 MB now, the price would shoot up, the community would heal, innovation would start happening again. Bitcoin would proper, and Blockstream's investors would have a good chance at making a "return" on their investment.
For some reason, Blockstream's investors are trying to stop all this from happening. So we have to look for a different explanation. If the owners of Blockstream don't want to get rich from the Lightning Network, then what do they really want?
The simplest explanation is that the real risk which Blockstream's investors are "averse" to is the possibility of trillions of dollars in legacy fiat suddenly plunging in relative value, if Bitcoin were to shoot to the moon. They're afraid they'll lose power if Bitcoin succeeds.
In order to provide some support for this radical but simple hypothesis, we have to dive into some pretty nasty and shadowy geopolitics.
What do the wars on Iraq and Syria, JPMorgan's naked short selling of silver, and the book "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" all have in common?
Whenever a currency tries to compete with the Fed / Petrollar / BIS [1] private central banking cartel, the legacy fiat power élite destroys that currency (if the currency has a central point of control - which Bitcoin does have: the Core devs, the Chinese miners, and Theymos).
[1] BIS = the Bank for International Settlements, often referred to as "the central bank of central banks"
Trillions of dollars were spent to take down the central banks of Iraq and Libya, because they defied the hegemony of the Fed / Petrodollar / BIS private central banking cartel.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ellen+brown+iraq+libya+bis
And while you're googling, you might want to look up whistleblower Andrew Maguire (who exposed how JPMorgan uses naked short selling to "dump" nonexistent silver in order to prevent the USDollar from collapsing).
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=andrew+maguire+jpmorgan
And you might also want to look up John Perkins, whose book "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" is another major eye-opener about how "the Washington consensus" manages to rule the world by printing fiat backed by violence and justified by "experts" and propaganda.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=john+perkins+confessions+economic+hit+man
That's just how the world works - although you have to do a bit of research to discover those unpleasant facts.
So for the legacy fiat power élite, $75 million to take down Bitcoin (and maintain their power) is chump change in comparison.
You all knew that "they" were going to try to destroy Bitcoin, didn't you?
Even Jamie Dimon practically admitted as much.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=jamie+dimon+bitcoin
Did you really think they would be clumsy enough to try to ban it outright?
Private central bankers run this planet, and they have never hesitated to use their lethal combination of guns, debt and psyops to maintain their power. They pay for the wars, they keep people enslaved to debt, and they dumb down the population so nobody knows what's really going on.
Print up a trillion dollars here, kill a million people there, brainwash everyone with censorship and propaganda. That's their modus operandi.
So we shouldn't be surprised if they they ruthlessly and covertly try to take down Bitcoin. They have the means and the motivation.
It was only a matter of time before they identified the three weakest centralized points in the Bitcoin system:
And so that's where they applied the pressure.
I'm sorry to be rude, but all three of those players listed above are idiot savants / sitting ducks up against the full-spectrum of covert dirty tricks deployed by the legacy fiat power élite - whether it's money, ego-stroking, or pretending to go along with their crazy cypherpunk beliefs that Bitcoin will only prosper as long as it remains small enough to run a node on a dial-up internet on a Raspberri Pi in Luke-Jr's basement.
So the simplest explanation is this: Blockstream is a "front company" which has been established for the purpose of performing a "controlled demolition" of Bitcoin.
So Satoshi messed up. He messed up by baking in a 1 MB constant into the code at the last minute as a clumsy anti-spam kludge - which could unfortunately only be removed via a hard fork - and which the global legacy power élite have figured how to retain via social engineering directed at clueless Core devs and clueless Chinese miners (and clueless forum moderators).
So why is the price is still fairly stable?
Heck, I'm so paranoid, I wouldn't even put it past them to try to interfere with investors who might otherwise be trying to send a signal by "voting with their feet".
In other words, several observers have commented that the only way to liberate Bitcoin from the cartel of Chinese miners and Core/Blockstream devs is to crash the price.
And many other observers are puzzled that the price isn't crashing now that Bitcoin is being strangled in its cradle by Blockstream.
Well, this wouldn't be the first time that the Fed / PetroDollar / BIS private central banking cartel sent in the "plunge protection" team to artificially prop up their fragile, centralized, permissioned currency.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=plunge+protection+team
Who knows, they could easily have printed up a few million dollars in phoney fiat and given it to players like Jamie Dimon or Blythe Masters who probably have access to the HFT (high frequency trading) tools to keep the price exactly where they want it, for as long as they want it. Manipulating an unregulated $6 billion market would be child's play for them.
The point is, we have no idea who is buying bitcoins at this price right now. Or what their motives are.
I know that if I were part of the legacy fiat power élite, this is exactly what I'd be doing now: buy off the devs, pressure the miners, encourage the censors, and play with the price - so nobody knows what the hell is going on. Prevent the price from crashing for the next year (so the community won't have a "smoking gun" to reject the Core devs and the Chinese miners)... and prevent it from going to the moon also (so the dollar won't look like it's crashing). Not too hard to do, especially if you have unlimited fiat at your disposal.
2016 is the perfect time to perform a "controlled demolition" on Bitcoin.
All the forces in the global economy are now aligned for a massive economic storm of epic proportions. Without Blockstream's interference, Bitcoin's price would be shooting to the moon right now, because it's the only digital asset class free of counterparty risk, compared to all the other garbage floating around in the system:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=deutsche+bank+lehman
https://np.reddit.com/BitcoinMarkets/comments/45ogx7/daily_discussion_sunday_february_14_2016/d0015vf
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=china+capital+flight
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=NIRP+Negative+Interest+Rate+Policy
Bitcoin is one of the only safe harbors in this oncoming economic storm. So it should be skyrocketing right now - if there were no artificial constraints on its growth.
So if Blockstream were not doing a controlled demolition of Bitcoin right now by freezing the blocksize to 1 MB for the next year, then the Bitcoin price could easily go to 4,000 USD - instead languishing around 400 USD.
In other words: the USDollar would be crashing 10-fold versus Bitcoin.
The only bulwark against Bitcoin rising 10x versus the USDollar is Blockstream's stranglehold on the Core devs and the Chinese miners.
Just like the only bulwark against precious metals rising 10x versus the USDollar right now is JPMorgan's naked short selling of phoney (paper) precious metals, mainly via the SLV ETF (exchange traded fund).
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=jpmorgan+naked+short+selling+slv
(Most informed estimates say that there is 100x more "fake" or "paper" gold and silver in existence, versus "physical" gold and silver. So it's easy for JPMorgan to suppress the silver price: just naked-short-sell "paper" silver. They do this as a service to the Fed, to prop up the dollar. And your tax dollars pay for this fraud.)
The silence of the devs
Isn't it strange how not a single Blockstream dev dares to "break ranks" on the 2 MB taboo?
This unanimous code of silence among Blockstream devs speaks volumes.
Devs on open-source projects like this (particularly ones which were founded on principles of "permissionless" "decentralization") would never maintain this kind of uniform code of developer silence - especially when their precious open-source project is on the verge of failing.
Most devs are rebels - especially Bitcoin devs - ready to break ranks at the drop of a hat, and propose their brilliant ideas to save the day.
But right now - utter silence.
This bizarre code of silence which we are now seeing from the "Core" devs must be the result of some major behind-the-scenes arm-twisting by the owners of Blocsktream, who must have made it abundantly clear that any dev who attempts to provide a simple on-chain scaling solution will be severely punished - financially, legally and/or socially.
Blockstream has deliberately set Bitcoin on a suicide course right now - and all the devs there are silently complicit - and so are the Chinese miners who submissively bowed down to Blockstream's stalling "scaling" roadmap.
But I don't really blame the devs and the miners. I feel bad for them.
I'm not really "blaming" any Chinese miners for being used like this - nor am I really "blaming" devs such as Adam Back, Greg Maxwell, etc.
Nor do I really "blame" guys like Austin Hill.
And I even think guys like Theymos and Luke-Jr "mean well".
They're all just being played. They think they're doing the right thing. Their arguments are genuine and heart-felt. Wrong, but heart-felt. This is what makes them so dangerous - because they really sound sincere and convincing. This is why they are the perfect pawns for the owners of Blockstream to play like this.
Subtle coercion
We recently found out that they locked the Chinese miners in a room for 13 hours until 3 AM to force them to sign an "agreement" to never use any code from a competing Bitcoin implementation that would increase the blocksize.
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/46tv22/only_emperors_kings_and_dictators_demand_fealty/
Have you ever seen this kind of coercion in an open-source project - an open-source project founded on the principles of "permissionless" "decentralization" - where many of the founders were "cypherpunks"??
The miners and the devs - and Theymos - and guys like Austin Hill - all are passionate about Bitcoin, and they all believe they are doing "the right thing".
But they are being manipulated, without their knowledge, by the real power behind Blockstream.
Prisoners in a golden cage
Strange how we never get to hear what really goes on behind closed doors at Blockstream. We never get to see the PowerPoint decks, we never get to find out who said what. Blockstream's public messaging is tightly controlled.
If Bitcoin were to have a "core" dev team, it should have had something like the Mozilla Group, or the Tor Project - non-profits, who answer to the public, not to private investors. Instead we got Blockstream - a private company funded by some of the biggest players of the legacy fiat power élite. WTF?!?
If they wanted to develop sidechains and LN, then fine, they should be able to. But what they're really doing is radically changing Bitcoin itself - mainly by freezing growth at 1 MB blocks now, which is choking the system.
Depite all this, I still would not go so far as to say that the Core devs and the Chinese miners are really "traitors". At most, they are actually prisoners in a golden cage, who are not even really conscious of their own imprisonment. They're smart people - and in some ways, smart people are actually easier to fool, once you figure out what they believe in.
So this is what I really think the owners of Blockstream have done. They've figured out how to manipulate the Core devs and the Chinese miners - and they're happy that Theymos is playing along, censoring the main online forums - so they're able to move ahead with their plan to do a "controlled demolition" of Bitcoin, and it only cost them $75 million dollars.
Centralization got us into this mess.
The only reason Bitcoin is vulnerable to this kind of "controlled demolition" being performed by the owners of Blockstream is because mining operations and dev teams are centralized - thus providing a single, vulnerable point where the legacy fiat power élite could easily deploy their full-spectrum attack.
We finally have a digital asset with no counterparty risk - and they want to take it away from us, so that we continue to depend on their debt-backed, violence-backed legacy fiat.
And they're able to do this because the Core devs and the Chinese miners and Theymos were such easy gullible centralized targets.
Decentralization will get us out.
If you are a miner or a dev, and if you want Bitcoin to survive, then you must go back to the principles of permissionless decentralization.
Go dark, release some code anonymously.
Release an internal Blockstream PowerPoint deck or some internal Blockstream emails to Wikileaks, exposing what the Blockstream investors are really up to.
Otherwise, Bitcoin is probably going to fail to realize its potential - and we'll have to wait a while for truly decentralized development (and mining, and forums) to possibly create a successor someday.
If you're a hodler, it would be great if such a phoenix rising from Bitcoin would be a "spinoff" - ie, a coin bootstrapped off of the existing ledger (to preserve existing wealth, while upgrading to a new protocol for appending new blocks).
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563972.0
But who knows.
submitted by UndergroundNews to btc [link] [comments]

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